Fenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Süper Lig
Gameweek 16 Mon, Dec 15 · 17:00
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Our take
Fenerbahce were clear favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 17). Fenerbahce had 3.9 days of rest, Konyaspor 9.1 and had to travel 463 km.
Away travel463 kmRest days3.9 · 9.1Matches / 14d3 · 1
Fenerbahce79%
Draw14%
Konyaspor7%
Fenerbahce77%
Draw15%
Konyaspor8%
Fenerbahce78%
Draw15%
Konyaspor7%
Fenerbahce73%
Draw17%
Konyaspor10%
Fenerbahce78%
Draw15%
Konyaspor7%
Over 2.5 68%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOzan Ergun
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.08
- Matches 12
Team strength
Fenerbahce
Konyaspor
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
75
AttackIn forecast
13
53
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKonyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FenerbahceKonyaspor
2.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
0.93
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
0.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
87%
Scored inContext
80%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
17.80
ShotsContext
13.33
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.27
36%
On target shareContext
32%
10.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.87
58%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.80
Shots allowedContext
12.27
2.87
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.07
3.42
BlocksContext
3.07
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.46
79%
Save rateContext
59%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
467
PassesContext
391
402
Accurate passesContext
322
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.60
FoulsContext
11.67
13.53
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
0.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
18.60
ShotsContext
13.30
7.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
40%
On target shareContext
30%
10.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
55%
Box shareContext
58%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.88
9.00
Shots allowedContext
11.30
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
2.89
BlocksContext
2.90
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.88
82%
Save rateContext
48%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
442
PassesContext
389
373
Accurate passesContext
322
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.90
FoulsContext
11.80
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
3.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fenerbahce
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km5,383 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Konyaspor
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel463 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fenerbahce |
Konyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec | 9.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 463 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 5,383 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
3A. Brown
24J. Oosterwolde
37M. Škriniar
18M. Müldür
7Fred
11E. Álvarez
9M. Aktürkoğlu
94Talisca
21Marco Asensio
10J. Durán
Konyaspor
Confirmed XI
13B. Güngördü(G)
12G. Sityá
15J. Ćalušić
5U. Yazğılı
23Y. Andzouana
21J. Jo
10E. Bardhi
42M. Bjørlo
77M. İbrahimoğlu
40J. Muleka
22M. Nayir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fenerbahce
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Konyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fenerbahce+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Konyaspor-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Fenerbahce · Home
2.43points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-0
- Scored
- 2.14
- Conceded
- 1.00
Konyaspor · Away
1.14points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-3
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Fenerbahce | Konyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Galatasaray | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Rizespor | W 5–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Besiktas | W 3–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 4–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 A | L 1–3 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Trabzonspor | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 3–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 3–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 30 of 42 · 2.14 per game | 13 of 42 · 0.93 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Fenerbahce wins1 draws0 Konyaspor wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.00
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 31 May 2025Fenerbahce2–1Konyaspor
- 13 Jan 2025Konyaspor2–3Fenerbahce
- 6 May 2024Konyaspor0–0Fenerbahce
- 10 Jan 2024Fenerbahce7–1Konyaspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fenerbahce | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.13 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.93 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.07 | 2.93 | 3.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 93% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 60% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 73% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 20% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Fenerbahce | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.70 | 3.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fenerbahce | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.83 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 10.16 | 10.27 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 7/12 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 6/12 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 5/12 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.47 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.33 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 4.27 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 12/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 10/15 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Fenerbahce | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 11.10 | 10.30 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 6.10 | 4.20 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ozan Ergun Türkiye · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.42league 4.45
Red cards0.42league 0.26
Cards 5+42%league 48%
Fouls22.8league 26.1
Penalties0.08league 0.27
Home wins58%league 34%
Fenerbahce3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W9 Nov 25H · Kayserispor4–21
- W14 Sep 25H · Trabzonspor1–04
- W18 May 25H · Eyüpspor2–12
Konyaspor2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L22 Oct 25H · Besiktas0–21
- W10 May 25H · Rizespor2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fenerbahce15 games · scored 32 · conceded 14
4
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
8
31-45
4
2
46-60
6
3
61-75
8
2
76-90
Konyaspor15 games · scored 20 · conceded 24
1
2
0-15
5
4
16-30
3
6
31-45
5
6
46-60
1
5
61-75
5
1
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 24 · conceded 9
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
7
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
Konyaspor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
