Feyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Feyenoord were slight favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 48). Absences weigh more on Feyenoord. Feyenoord had 20.3 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 20.2 and had to travel 81 km.
Away travel81 kmRest days20.3 · 20.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Feyenoord52%
Draw22%
AZ Alkmaar27%
Feyenoord49%
Draw25%
AZ Alkmaar26%
Feyenoord53%
Draw21%
AZ Alkmaar25%
Feyenoord43%
Draw23%
AZ Alkmaar34%
Feyenoord52%
Draw22%
AZ Alkmaar26%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 126
Team strength
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
76
AttackIn forecast
52
61
DefenceIn forecast
49
70
Form indexContext
59
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FeyenoordAZ Alkmaar
3.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.57
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.86
2.85
xGVia Att/Def
3.04
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
+0.72
Goals minus xGContext
-0.47
100%
Scored inContext
100%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
22.14
ShotsContext
19.57
8.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.57
38%
On target shareContext
39%
15.57
Shots in the boxContext
12.86
70%
Box shareContext
67%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.40
9.43
Shots allowedContext
7.86
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.43
2.50
BlocksContext
2.50
1.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.57
65%
Save rateContext
65%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
513
PassesContext
541
450
Accurate passesContext
467
88%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.27
Team ratingContext
7.07
8.71
FoulsContext
11.00
11.86
Fouls sufferedContext
11.57
0.86
Yellow cardsContext
0.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
2.92
xGVia Att/Def
2.37
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
100%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
19.10
ShotsContext
17.40
7.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.70
39%
On target shareContext
39%
13.30
Shots in the boxContext
11.60
70%
Box shareContext
68%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.90
Shots allowedContext
10.10
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.89
BlocksContext
2.75
1.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
59%
Save rateContext
70%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
468
PassesContext
524
404
Accurate passesContext
452
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.08
Team ratingContext
7.02
9.30
FoulsContext
10.70
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
0.80
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Feyenoord
DWLWW
Rest20.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 70 · 10 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
AZ Alkmaar
WWDLW
Rest20.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel81 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 59 · 10 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · -0.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Feyenoord |
AZ Alkmaar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.3Eredivisie 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 20.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 81 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
1T. Ernst(G)
16Javi López
35Mika Màrmol
6J. St. Juste
26G. Read
28O. Targhalline
34C. Vanhoutte
8G. Zechiël
10L. Valente
19Nacho Ferri
23A. Hadj Moussa
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
28J. De Busser(G)
5Mateo Chávez
4L. Schouten
3W. Goes
22Elijah Dijkstra
6P. Koopmeiners
14C. Stengs
8J. Clasie
11Ro-Zangelo Daal
9M. Meerdink
24A. Oufkir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Feyenoord
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AZ Alkmaar
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Feyenoord-1.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- AZ Alkmaar+1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Feyenoord · Home
1.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
AZ Alkmaar · Away
3.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | W 5–0 H | W 4–1 A |
| ADO Den Haag | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 H | W 5–2 H |
| Points | 5 of 9 · 1.67 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 Feyenoord wins2 draws0 AZ Alkmaar wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 10 May 2026Feyenoord1–1AZ Alkmaar
- 21 Sep 2025AZ Alkmaar3–3Feyenoord
- 5 Apr 2025AZ Alkmaar0–1Feyenoord
- 2 Nov 2024Feyenoord3–2AZ Alkmaar
- 4 Feb 2024AZ Alkmaar0–1Feyenoord
- 12 Nov 2023Feyenoord1–0AZ Alkmaar
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.57 | 2.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.86 | |
| Match goals | 4.57 | 3.43 | 3.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 43% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 86% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 57% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.90 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 4.20 | 3.30 | 3.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.86 | 8.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.71 | 3.29 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 11.86 | 10.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.86 | 0.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.29 | 1.29 | |
| Match total | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% 2/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.10 | 7.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 11.80 | 10.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.80 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 1.80 | 2.30 | 2.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 126 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.25league 2.65
Red cards0.13league 0.05
Cards 5+26%league 11%
Fouls21.7league 20.8
Penalties0.33league 0.20
Home wins44%league 31%
Feyenoord15 with this referee
Record5-5-5
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.2
Pens for · against5 · 2
Reds1
- W23 Aug 26A · Cambuur5–21
- W25 Apr 26H · Groningen3–10
- D22 Mar 26H · Ajax1–11
- L18 Jan 26H · Sparta Rotterdam3–41
- D21 Sep 25A · AZ Alkmaar3–33
AZ Alkmaar10 with this referee
Record3-4-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 2
- W15 Aug 26A · Utrecht4–12
- D8 Feb 26H · Ajax1–11
- W2 Nov 25A · Sparta Rotterdam1–01
- D21 Sep 25H · Feyenoord3–34
- D11 Jan 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Feyenoord7 games · scored 25 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
4
16-30
7
31-45
3
2
46-60
7
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
AZ Alkmaar7 games · scored 18 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 29 · conceded 13
2
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
7
31-45
4
3
46-60
7
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
