Feyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Feyenoord were clear favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 18). Feyenoord had 4 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 3.1 and had to travel 141 km.
Away travel141 kmRest days4 · 3.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Feyenoord75%
Draw16%
Fortuna Sittard9%
Feyenoord74%
Draw17%
Fortuna Sittard9%
Feyenoord75%
Draw16%
Fortuna Sittard9%
Feyenoord68%
Draw19%
Fortuna Sittard13%
Feyenoord74%
Draw17%
Fortuna Sittard9%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 57
Team strength
Feyenoord
Fortuna Sittard
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
76
AttackIn forecast
19
61
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FeyenoordFortuna Sittard
2.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.25
0.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
2.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
0.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.90
100%
Scored inContext
100%
75%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
17.25
ShotsContext
16.25
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.75
41%
On target shareContext
35%
12.50
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
75%
Box shareContext
71%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.25
Shots allowedContext
12.75
1.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
3.25
BlocksContext
4.00
1.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
80%
Save rateContext
63%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
439
PassesContext
415
366
Accurate passesContext
333
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.20
Team ratingContext
6.85
9.25
FoulsContext
14.50
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.75
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
2.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
90%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.70
ShotsContext
12.00
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
38%
On target shareContext
31%
11.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
72%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.86
10.20
Shots allowedContext
11.30
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
2.60
BlocksContext
3.56
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
63%
Save rateContext
68%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
407
PassesContext
373
336
Accurate passesContext
297
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.86
9.80
FoulsContext
12.80
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Feyenoord
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fortuna Sittard
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel141 km366 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Feyenoord |
Fortuna Sittard |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Sep | 3.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 141 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 366 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
15J. Bos
4T. Watanabe
21A. Ahmedhodžić
2B. Nieuwkoop
8Q. Timber
14S. Steijn
28O. Targhalline
16L. Sauer
9A. Ueda
36J. Slory
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
80R. Fosso
44Iván Márquez
4S. Adewoye
18D. Limnios
77L. Tunjić
23P. Brittijn
17J. Lonwijk
11M. Aïko
52M. Ihattaren
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Feyenoord
Scores -0.10 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fortuna Sittard
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Feyenoord+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fortuna Sittard+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Feyenoord · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Fortuna Sittard · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Feyenoord | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Feyenoord wins2 draws0 Fortuna Sittard wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.33
Over 2.50%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 33%
- 12 Apr 2025Fortuna Sittard0–2Feyenoord
- 30 Nov 2024Feyenoord1–1Fortuna Sittard
- 13 Aug 2023Feyenoord0–0Fortuna Sittard
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Feyenoord | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 2.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.25 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 4.00 | 3.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 100% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 75% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Feyenoord | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 2.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.25 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 4.00 | 3.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 100% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 75% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Feyenoord | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.25 | 5.75 | |
| Match total | 9.25 | 10.00 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.25 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 3.25 | 4.00 | 3.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Feyenoord | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.90 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.80 | 3.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 57 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.72league 3.47
Red cards0.16league 0.21
Cards 5+35%league 37%
Fouls20.3league 22.9
Penalties0.21league 0.16
Home wins32%league 47%
Feyenoord4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W9 Aug 25H · NAC Breda2–01
- W3 May 25A · Heracles4–11
- W27 Oct 24A · Utrecht2–02
- D28 Jan 24H · Twente0–00
Fortuna Sittard3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L16 Mar 25A · Groningen0–14
- L22 Sep 24H · PSV Eindhoven1–33
- W10 Nov 23H · Heracles4–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Feyenoord4 games · scored 9 · conceded 1
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Fortuna Sittard4 games · scored 9 · conceded 7
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 21 · conceded 13
4
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
