Feyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Feyenoord
2nd · 42 pts · 22 played
DLWLW
First leg1–2
1–0Full time
GO Ahead Eagles
15th · 23 pts · 22 played
DDDDL
Our take
Feyenoord were clear favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 22). Absences weigh more on Feyenoord. Feyenoord had 7 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 3.7 and had to travel 121 km.
Away travel121 kmRest days7 · 3.7Matches / 14d2 · 3
Feyenoord63%
Draw22%
GO Ahead Eagles16%
Feyenoord62%
Draw22%
GO Ahead Eagles16%
Feyenoord63%
Draw22%
GO Ahead Eagles15%
Feyenoord55%
Draw24%
GO Ahead Eagles21%
Feyenoord61%
Draw22%
GO Ahead Eagles16%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 45
Team strength
FeyenoordGO Ahead Eagles
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
76
AttackIn forecast
29
61
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FeyenoordGO Ahead Eagles
2.36
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.45
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.73
1.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
+0.50
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
91%
Scored inContext
86%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
16.77
ShotsContext
11.41
6.41
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.05
38%
On target shareContext
44%
11.64
Shots in the boxContext
8.32
70%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.74
10.68
Shots allowedContext
17.64
4.68
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.64
2.86
BlocksContext
6.15
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.18
68%
Save rateContext
74%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
445
PassesContext
424
373
Accurate passesContext
349
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.83
9.68
FoulsContext
9.23
10.41
Fouls sufferedContext
10.59
1.55
Yellow cardsContext
1.59
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
+0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.30
ShotsContext
12.00
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
36%
On target shareContext
38%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
64%
Box shareContext
67%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.78
12.20
Shots allowedContext
15.70
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.22
BlocksContext
5.00
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
68%
Save rateContext
66%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
445
PassesContext
421
371
Accurate passesContext
345
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.30
FoulsContext
9.50
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
8.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Feyenoord
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km270 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest3.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel121 km158 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Feyenoord |
GO Ahead Eagles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 3.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 121 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 270 km | 158 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 6 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.3 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
13S. Benda(G)
15J. Bos
21A. Ahmedhodžić
4T. Watanabe
20M. Deijl
6I. Hwang
28O. Targhalline
32Aymen Sliti
7J. Moder
23A. Hadj Moussa
9A. Ueda
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
29A. Adelgaard
4J. Kramer
26J. Dirksen
2A. Sampsted
8H. Linthorst
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
7J. Breum
19J. Slory
23T. Baeten
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Feyenoord
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
GO Ahead Eagles
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Feyenoord-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- GO Ahead Eagles+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Feyenoord · Home
2.00points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-3
- Scored
- 2.64
- Conceded
- 1.64
GO Ahead Eagles · Away
0.73points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-5
- Scored
- 1.45
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Feyenoord | GO Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | W 1–0 AW 3–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Heracles | W 4–2 HW 7–0 A | L 2–4 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 3–4 HW 4–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| Heerenveen | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A |
| Twente | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Ajax | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 6–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Telstar | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 HL 2–4 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 2–4 H | D 1–1 H |
| FC Volendam | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Groningen | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 3–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| NAC Breda | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 42 of 63 · 2.00 per game | 20 of 63 · 0.95 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Feyenoord wins0 draws1 GO Ahead Eagles wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 9 Nov 2025GO Ahead Eagles2–1Feyenoord
- 30 Mar 2025Feyenoord3–2GO Ahead Eagles
- 19 Oct 2024GO Ahead Eagles1–5Feyenoord
- 30 Sep 2023Feyenoord3–1GO Ahead Eagles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Feyenoord | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.36 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.45 | 1.73 | |
| Match goals | 3.82 | 3.23 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 95% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 64% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 73% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 14% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Feyenoord | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 2.70 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Feyenoord | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.90 | 5.64 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.85 | 5.14 | |
| Match total | 10.75 | 10.78 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 15/20 | 82% 18/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 12/20 | 68% 15/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 9/20 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.68 | 1.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.32 | 1.73 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.46 | 3.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 36% 8/22 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 18% 4/22 | 23% 5/22 | |
| Feyenoord | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.89 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 10.00 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.40 | 3.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.51league 3.31
Red cards0.09league 0.20
Cards 5+22%league 31%
Fouls19.8league 21.6
Penalties0.22league 0.25
Home wins56%league 43%
Feyenoord5 with this referee
Record5-0-0
Cards · opp.0.2 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W6 Dec 25H · PEC Zwolle6–11
- W1 Nov 25H · FC Volendam3–10
- W14 May 25H · Waalwijk2–00
- W2 Apr 25H · Groningen4–10
- W10 Nov 24A · Almere City FC4–10
GO Ahead Eagles2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D21 Sep 24H · Ajax1–12
- L27 Sep 23A · PSV Eindhoven0–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Feyenoord22 games · scored 52 · conceded 32
4
5
0-15
10
5
16-30
11
3
31-45
10
6
46-60
6
2
61-75
11
11
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles21 games · scored 31 · conceded 38
6
5
0-15
2
3
16-30
7
10
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
5
61-75
8
8
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 18 · conceded 20
2
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
6
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
