Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Feb 15 · 11:15 Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam
Feyenoord 2nd · 42 pts · 22 played
First leg1–2 1–0Full time
GO Ahead Eagles 15th · 23 pts · 22 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Feyenoord62.5%fair odds 1.60
Draw21.6%fair odds 4.63
GO Ahead Eagles15.9%fair odds 6.29
Expected goals2.04 – 0.93total 2.98
Likeliest score2–010.6%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Feyenoord

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

GO Ahead Eagles

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Feyenoord ↓ · GO Ahead Eagles →0123456+
05.64.22.20.70.20.00.0
19.910.24.51.40.30.10.0
210.69.94.61.40.30.10.0
37.26.83.21.00.20.00.0
43.73.51.60.50.10.00.0
51.51.40.70.20.00.00.0
6+0.70.70.30.10.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Feyenoord goals, columns GO Ahead Eagles goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 2–010.6%9.41
  • 1–110.2%9.77
  • 2–19.9%10.07
  • 1–09.9%10.11
  • 3–07.2%13.83
  • 3–16.8%14.79
  • 0–05.6%17.83
  • 2–24.6%21.54
  • 1–24.5%22.00
  • 0–14.2%23.56

Winning margin

19.8% Feyenoord by 3+ fair 5.06
19.2% Feyenoord by 2 fair 5.20
23.5% Feyenoord by 1 fair 4.25
21.6% Draw fair 4.63
10.5% GO Ahead Eagles by 1 fair 9.53
4.0% GO Ahead Eagles by 2 fair 24.84
1.4% GO Ahead Eagles by 3+ fair 72.58

Goal distribution

Total goals

6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+

Feyenoord goals

13%0
26%1
27%2
18%3
15%4+

GO Ahead Eagles goals

39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Feyenoord win 62.5% 61.5% +1.0 pp
Draw 21.6% 22.5% -0.9 pp
GO Ahead Eagles win 15.9% 16.1% -0.2 pp
Over 2.5 57.2% 54.0% +3.2 pp
Both teams score 53.4% 51.2% +2.2 pp
Expected goals Feyenoord 2.04 1.95 +0.10
Expected goals GO Ahead Eagles 0.93 0.89 +0.04

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Feyenoord win62.5%1.60
  • Draw21.6%4.63
  • GO Ahead Eagles win15.9%6.29
  • Double chance Feyenoord or draw84.1%1.19
  • Double chance Feyenoord or GO Ahead Eagles78.4%1.28
  • Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or draw37.5%2.67
  • Draw no bet Feyenoord79.7%1.25
  • Draw no bet GO Ahead Eagles20.3%4.93

Goals

  • Over 0.594.4%1.06
  • Over 1.580.3%1.25
  • Over 2.557.2%1.75
  • Over 3.534.8%2.88
  • Over 4.518.1%5.53
  • Under 1.519.7%5.07
  • Under 2.542.8%2.33
  • Under 3.565.2%1.53

Both teams to score

  • Yes53.4%1.87
  • No46.6%2.14
  • Yes and over 2.543.1%2.32
  • Feyenoord win and yes28.8%3.47
  • Draw and yes16.0%6.25
  • GO Ahead Eagles win and yes8.5%11.72

Team goals

  • Feyenoord over 0.587.0%1.15
  • Feyenoord over 1.560.5%1.65
  • Feyenoord over 2.533.5%2.99
  • GO Ahead Eagles over 0.560.7%1.65
  • GO Ahead Eagles over 1.524.0%4.16
  • GO Ahead Eagles over 2.56.9%14.55
  • Feyenoord clean sheet39.3%2.55
  • GO Ahead Eagles clean sheet13.0%7.71
  • Feyenoord win to nil33.7%2.97
  • GO Ahead Eagles win to nil7.4%13.58

Handicap

  • Feyenoord −1.539.0%2.57
  • Feyenoord −2.519.8%5.06
  • GO Ahead Eagles +1.561.0%1.64
  • GO Ahead Eagles +2.580.2%1.25
  • GO Ahead Eagles −1.55.4%18.51
  • Feyenoord +1.594.6%1.06

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored203 Favourite won49.8% Avg chance given to result40.7% 1X2 Brier0.596 Over 2.5 called right63.1% BTTS called right63.1%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3638.1%33.3%
40–50%7344.9%43.8%
50–60%4655.1%47.8%
60–70%2664.2%61.5%
70–80%1574.2%86.7%
80%+784.7%85.7%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 180 of 203 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.60040.5960
Avg chance given to result40.4%41.6%
Favourite won48.9%51.7%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 180 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 203 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.