Feyenoord vs Groningen – 25 Apr 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Apr 25 · 15:30 Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam

Feyenoord 2nd · 55 pts · 30 played DWDDD

First leg1–0 3–1Full time

Groningen 9th · 42 pts · 30 played WDWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Feyenoord were slight favourites.

Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Groningen. Feyenoord had 13.1 days of rest, Groningen 13.9 and had to travel 202 km.

Away travel202 kmRest days13.1 · 13.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Feyenoord52%

Draw23%

Groningen25%

Expected goals 1.95 – 1.30

Feyenoord56%

Draw24%

Groningen20%

Expected goals 1.80 – 0.99

Feyenoord52%

Draw23%

Groningen25%

Expected goals 1.95 – 1.28

Feyenoord44%

Draw24%

Groningen32%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.46

Feyenoord51%

Draw24%

Groningen25%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.25

Over 2.5 63% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 115

Team strength

Feyenoord

Groningen

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 28

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

76 AttackIn forecast 41

61 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Feyenoord

Attack—

Defense risk—

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Feyenoord

Groningen

2.07 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.37 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.23

1.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.66

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

87% Scored inContext 77%

30% Clean sheetsContext 33%

16.77 ShotsContext 15.63

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

38% On target shareContext 37%

11.63 Shots in the boxContext 9.31

70% Box shareContext 58%

12% ConversionContext 9%

2.06 OffsidesContext 1.84

10.70 Shots allowedContext 11.10

4.58 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.21

2.86 BlocksContext 3.04

3.24 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.04

69% Save rateContext 69%

54% PossessionIn forecast 51%

433 PassesContext 413

359 Accurate passesContext 331

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.84

9.57 FoulsContext 10.33

11.17 Fouls sufferedContext 9.77

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 30 and 30 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.66 xGVia Att/Def 1.70

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

-0.56 Goals minus xGContext -0.30

70% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.20 ShotsContext 15.70

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

36% On target shareContext 34%

10.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.11

67% Box shareContext 59%

7% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.67

10.50 Shots allowedContext 11.90

4.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

2.60 BlocksContext 3.60

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

71% Save rateContext 72%

52% PossessionIn forecast 48%

405 PassesContext 404

327 Accurate passesContext 319

81% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.85

9.60 FoulsContext 9.50

12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 8.20

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Feyenoord

Rest13.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km189 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Groningen

Rest13.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel202 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Feyenoord	Groningen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 12 Apr	13.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	202 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	189 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Feyenoord Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22T. Wellenreuther(G)

15J. Bos 4T. Watanabe 18G. Trauner 20M. Deijl

24T. Kraaijeveld 28O. Targhalline

44Tobias van den Elshout 10L. Valente 23A. Hadj Moussa

9A. Ueda

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Groningen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1E. Vaessen(G)

43M. Peersman 4D. Janse 3T. Blokzijl 5M. Rente

18T. Land 8T. de Jonge

14J. Schreuders 17D. van der Werff 10Y. Taha

26T. van Bergen

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Feyenoord Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Groningen Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Feyenoord-0.4 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Groningen+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Feyenoord · Home 2.13points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 10-2-3
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 1.40

Groningen · Away 1.33points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 6-2-7
Scored: 1.27
Conceded: 1.53

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Feyenoord	Groningen
NEC Nijmegen	D 1–1 AL 2–4 H	L 0–2 A
FC Volendam	D 0–0 AW 3–1 H	L 2–3 AW 3–0 H
Ajax	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A	W 3–1 HL 0–2 A
Excelsior	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A	W 2–0 A
NAC Breda	D 3–3 AW 2–0 H	D 0–0 HW 2–1 A
Twente	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Telstar	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A	W 2–0 AW 2–0 H
GO Ahead Eagles	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A	D 0–0 HD 1–1 A
Utrecht	W 1–0 AW 3–2 H	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 0–3 AL 2–3 H	L 1–2 HL 2–4 A
Heracles	W 4–2 HW 7–0 A	W 4–0 H
Sparta Rotterdam	L 3–4 HW 4–0 A	L 0–2 AL 0–2 H
Heerenveen	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H
PEC Zwolle	W 6–1 H	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H
AZ Alkmaar	D 3–3 A	W 3–0 HL 1–4 A
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–0 H	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A
Points	52 of 87 · 1.79 per game	42 of 87 · 1.45 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

2 Feyenoord wins1 draws0 Groningen wins

Goals per game2.33 – 1.00 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%

28 Sep 2025Groningen0–1Feyenoord
2 Apr 2025Feyenoord4–1Groningen
14 Sep 2024Groningen2–2Feyenoord

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Feyenoord	Groningen	Forecast
Scored per game	2.07	1.40
Conceded per game	1.37	1.23
Match goals	3.43	2.63	3.25
Over 1.5	83%	87%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	63%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	63%
Clean sheets	30%	33%
Failed to score	13%	23%
Games	30	30

	Feyenoord	Groningen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.40
Conceded per game	1.20	1.30
Match goals	2.30	2.70	3.25
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	63%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	63%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Feyenoord	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	6.89	6.24
Corners conceded	3.64	4.76
Match total	10.53	11.00	10.27
Over 8.5	68% 19/28	76% 22/29
Over 9.5	57% 16/28	52% 15/29
Over 10.5	43% 12/28	45% 13/29
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.67
Opponent cards	1.53	1.47
Match total	3.23	3.14	3.33
Over 3.5	43% 13/30	40% 12/30
Over 4.5	23% 7/30	20% 6/30

	Feyenoord	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	6.20
Corners conceded	3.40	5.90
Match total	9.90	12.10	10.27
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.50
Opponent cards	2.10	0.70
Match total	4.30	2.20	3.33
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 115 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.26league 3.17

Red cards0.13league 0.16

Cards 5+26%league 26%

Fouls21.4league 21.2

Penalties0.30league 0.22

Home wins43%league 45%

Feyenoord13 with this referee

Record3-5-5 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.4 Pens for · against3 · 2 Reds1

D22 Mar 26H · Ajax1–11
L18 Jan 26H · Sparta Rotterdam3–41
D21 Sep 25A · AZ Alkmaar3–33
L11 May 25H · PSV Eindhoven2–33
L2 Feb 25A · Ajax1–22

Groningen6 with this referee

Record3-1-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

L22 Feb 26A · Twente1–22
W13 Dec 25H · FC Volendam3–00
L23 Aug 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–42
W25 Jan 25H · Heerenveen1–00
W9 Nov 24H · Sparta Rotterdam1–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.