Feyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Feyenoord
3rd · 36 pts · 19 played
WLDDL
First leg7–0
4–2Full time
Heracles
18th · 14 pts · 19 played
DLLLL
Our take
Feyenoord were clear favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 14). Absences weigh more on Heracles. Feyenoord had 2.9 days of rest, Heracles 7.1 and had to travel 157 km.
Away travel157 kmRest days2.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Feyenoord73%
Draw17%
Heracles10%
Feyenoord70%
Draw19%
Heracles11%
Feyenoord72%
Draw17%
Heracles11%
Feyenoord66%
Draw20%
Heracles14%
Feyenoord72%
Draw18%
Heracles11%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 89
Team strength
FeyenoordHeracles
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
9
76
AttackIn forecast
7
61
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FeyenoordHeracles
2.47
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.37
1.42
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.53
2.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.90
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
95%
Scored inContext
58%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
5%
17.63
ShotsContext
10.63
6.68
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.69
38%
On target shareContext
37%
12.42
Shots in the boxContext
7.17
72%
Box shareContext
63%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.77
11.05
Shots allowedContext
17.37
4.69
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.63
3.11
BlocksContext
5.72
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
68%
Save rateContext
60%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
444
PassesContext
339
371
Accurate passesContext
263
84%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.75
9.42
FoulsContext
12.21
10.26
Fouls sufferedContext
11.16
1.32
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
+0.63
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
90%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.30
ShotsContext
11.60
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
36%
On target shareContext
42%
11.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
72%
Box shareContext
70%
15%
ConversionContext
16%
1.20
OffsidesContext
1.89
12.70
Shots allowedContext
14.60
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.75
BlocksContext
4.67
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
67%
Save rateContext
63%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
453
PassesContext
348
379
Accurate passesContext
270
84%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.80
FoulsContext
13.00
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Feyenoord
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Heracles
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel157 km313 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Feyenoord |
Heracles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 18 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 157 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 313 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
15J. Bos
21A. Ahmedhodžić
4T. Watanabe
20M. Deijl
40L. Valente
28O. Targhalline
6I. Hwang
16L. Sauer
9A. Ueda
23A. Hadj Moussa
Heracles
Confirmed XI
16T. Jansink(G)
24I. Mesík
18A. Van Hoorenbeeck
4D. Mirani
2M. Benita
8M. Engels
13J. Žambůrek
10T. Bruns
73W. Ould-Chikh
19L. Kulenović
25L. Zeefuik
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Feyenoord
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Heracles
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Feyenoord+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Heracles-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Feyenoord · Home
1.90points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-3
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.60
Heracles · Away
0.40points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-8
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Feyenoord | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 3–4 HW 4–0 A | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Heerenveen | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Twente | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Ajax | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 6–1 H | W 8–2 H |
| Telstar | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 2–4 H | L 1–4 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 1–2 A | W 4–2 H |
| FC Volendam | W 3–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 2–3 H | L 3–4 A |
| Utrecht | W 3–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| Groningen | W 1–0 A | L 0–4 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 3–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| NAC Breda | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 33 of 54 · 1.83 per game | 14 of 54 · 0.78 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
4 Feyenoord wins0 draws0 Heracles wins
Goals per game5.00 – 0.75
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 19 Oct 2025Heracles0–7Feyenoord
- 3 May 2025Heracles1–4Feyenoord
- 14 Dec 2024Feyenoord5–2Heracles
- 17 Dec 2023Heracles0–4Feyenoord
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Feyenoord | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.47 | 1.37 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.42 | 2.53 | |
| Match goals | 3.89 | 3.89 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 74% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 53% | 37% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 53% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 5% | |
| Failed to score | 5% | 42% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Feyenoord | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Feyenoord | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.06 | 4.37 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.94 | 6.37 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 10.74 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 12/17 | 74% 14/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 11/17 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 53% 9/17 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.42 | 2.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.21 | 2.05 | |
| Match total | 2.63 | 4.16 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 26% 5/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 11% 2/19 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Feyenoord | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 10.66 | 11.10 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 4.50 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 89 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.03league 3.38
Red cards0.11league 0.20
Cards 5+43%league 31%
Fouls23.3league 21.7
Penalties0.31league 0.27
Home wins47%league 44%
Feyenoord9 with this referee
Record7-0-2
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L14 Dec 25A · Ajax0–21
- W31 Aug 25A · Sparta Rotterdam4–02
- W16 Mar 25A · Twente6–23
- W8 Feb 25H · Sparta Rotterdam3–00
- L22 Dec 24A · PSV Eindhoven0–33
Heracles5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W27 Sep 25H · Sparta Rotterdam3–02
- W13 Apr 25H · AZ Alkmaar1–02
- D11 Jan 25H · Sparta Rotterdam1–13
- L1 Sep 24A · PEC Zwolle0–32
- L10 Dec 23A · Vitesse0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Feyenoord19 games · scored 47 · conceded 27
3
3
0-15
9
3
16-30
10
3
31-45
10
6
46-60
6
2
61-75
9
10
76-90
Heracles19 games · scored 26 · conceded 48
3
6
0-15
3
5
16-30
5
10
31-45
7
7
46-60
4
7
61-75
4
13
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 23 · conceded 22
3
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
10
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 19 · conceded 21
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
7
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
