Feyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 65). Feyenoord had 2.8 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 7.9 and had to travel 87 km.
Away travel87 kmRest days2.8 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Feyenoord37%
Draw26%
PSV Eindhoven37%
Feyenoord36%
Draw27%
PSV Eindhoven36%
Feyenoord37%
Draw26%
PSV Eindhoven37%
Feyenoord30%
Draw26%
PSV Eindhoven44%
Feyenoord37%
Draw27%
PSV Eindhoven36%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 60
Team strength
Feyenoord
PSV Eindhoven
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
75
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
76
AttackIn forecast
60
61
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FeyenoordPSV Eindhoven
2.78
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
2.08
xGVia Att/Def
2.18
0.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.70
Goals minus xGContext
+0.82
100%
Scored inContext
89%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
17.44
ShotsContext
19.67
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.89
40%
On target shareContext
40%
12.78
Shots in the boxContext
12.67
75%
Box shareContext
64%
16%
ConversionContext
15%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.71
7.89
Shots allowedContext
12.44
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
2.63
BlocksContext
4.00
2.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
72%
Save rateContext
68%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
438
PassesContext
551
368
Accurate passesContext
477
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.16
Team ratingContext
7.13
9.78
FoulsContext
12.56
10.11
Fouls sufferedContext
8.11
1.78
Yellow cardsContext
1.56
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.70
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.69
xGVia Att/Def
2.13
0.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.71
Goals minus xGContext
+0.57
80%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
16.20
ShotsContext
17.30
6.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
41%
On target shareContext
38%
11.40
Shots in the boxContext
11.30
70%
Box shareContext
66%
15%
ConversionContext
16%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.57
8.10
Shots allowedContext
12.50
3.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
2.75
BlocksContext
3.60
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
69%
Save rateContext
60%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
426
PassesContext
534
359
Accurate passesContext
463
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.96
11.80
FoulsContext
12.30
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Feyenoord
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km313 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
PSV Eindhoven
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel87 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Feyenoord |
PSV Eindhoven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 87 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 313 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
15J. Bos
4T. Watanabe
21A. Ahmedhodžić
26G. Read
6I. Hwang
28O. Targhalline
40L. Valente
16L. Sauer
9A. Ueda
23A. Hadj Moussa
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
2A. Salah-Eddine
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
22J. Schouten
8S. Dest
23J. Veerman
17Mauro Júnior
5I. Perišić
34I. Saibari
27D. Man
20G. Til
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Feyenoord
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Feyenoord+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- PSV Eindhoven-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Feyenoord · Home
3.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
PSV Eindhoven · Away
3.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 3.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Feyenoord | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | W 1–0 A | W 4–2 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 4–0 A | W 6–1 H |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Feyenoord wins0 draws3 PSV Eindhoven wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.67
Over 2.5100%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 11 May 2025Feyenoord2–3PSV Eindhoven
- 22 Dec 2024PSV Eindhoven3–0Feyenoord
- 3 Dec 2023Feyenoord1–2PSV Eindhoven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Feyenoord | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.78 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.44 | 4.33 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 78% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Feyenoord | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 4.33 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 78% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 67% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 11% | |
| Games | 10 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Feyenoord | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.38 | 6.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.13 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 10.51 | 11.00 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.89 | 1.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.44 | 1.44 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 22% 2/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Feyenoord | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.89 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 10.90 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 60 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.63league 3.44
Red cards0.17league 0.21
Cards 5+33%league 34%
Fouls20.1league 22.5
Penalties0.20league 0.24
Home wins35%league 47%
Feyenoord5 with this referee
Record4-1-0
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 Sep 25H · Fortuna Sittard2–00
- W9 Aug 25H · NAC Breda2–01
- W3 May 25A · Heracles4–11
- W27 Oct 24A · Utrecht2–02
- D28 Jan 24H · Twente0–00
PSV Eindhoven6 with this referee
Record5-1-0
Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W12 Apr 25H · Almere City FC5–00
- D8 Feb 25H · Willem II1–10
- W19 Oct 24A · AZ Alkmaar2–10
- W22 Sep 24A · Fortuna Sittard3–11
- W25 Nov 23A · Twente3–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Feyenoord9 games · scored 25 · conceded 6
2
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
6
31-45
7
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
PSV Eindhoven9 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
4
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
6
1
46-60
5
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 24 · conceded 9
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
6
31-45
7
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 27 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
5
5
31-45
5
1
46-60
5
4
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
