Feyenoord
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Feyenoord37.1%fair odds 2.70
Draw26.0%fair odds 3.84
PSV Eindhoven36.9%fair odds 2.71
Expected goals1.45 – 1.44total 2.89
Likeliest score1–112.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
PSV Eindhoven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Feyenoord ↓ · PSV Eindhoven → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Feyenoord goals, columns PSV Eindhoven goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%8.19
- 2–18.4%11.91
- 1–28.4%11.94
- 1–07.4%13.48
- 0–17.4%13.51
- 0–06.2%16.22
- 2–26.1%16.50
- 2–05.8%17.20
- 0–25.8%17.28
- 3–14.1%24.69
Winning margin
6.7%
Feyenoord by 3+
fair 15.00
11.1%
Feyenoord by 2
fair 9.02
19.3%
Feyenoord by 1
fair 5.18
26.0%
Draw
fair 3.84
19.3%
PSV Eindhoven by 1
fair 5.19
11.0%
PSV Eindhoven by 2
fair 9.07
6.6%
PSV Eindhoven by 3+
fair 15.13
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Feyenoord goals
24%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
PSV Eindhoven goals
24%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord win | 37.1% | 37.0% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 26.0% | 27.3% | -1.3 pp |
| PSV Eindhoven win | 36.9% | 35.7% | +1.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 49.8% | +5.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.0% | 54.9% | +4.2 pp |
| Expected goals Feyenoord | 1.45 | 1.35 | +0.10 |
| Expected goals PSV Eindhoven | 1.44 | 1.32 | +0.12 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Feyenoord win37.1%2.70
- Draw26.0%3.84
- PSV Eindhoven win36.9%2.71
- Double chance Feyenoord or draw63.1%1.58
- Double chance Feyenoord or PSV Eindhoven74.0%1.35
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw62.9%1.59
- Draw no bet Feyenoord50.1%2.00
- Draw no bet PSV Eindhoven49.9%2.00
Goals
- Over 0.593.8%1.07
- Over 1.579.0%1.27
- Over 2.555.2%1.81
- Over 3.532.8%3.04
- Over 4.516.7%6.00
- Under 1.521.0%4.77
- Under 2.544.8%2.23
- Under 3.567.2%1.49
Both teams to score
- Yes59.0%1.69
- No41.0%2.44
- Yes and over 2.546.8%2.14
- Feyenoord win and yes19.6%5.10
- Draw and yes19.9%5.03
- PSV Eindhoven win and yes19.5%5.12
Team goals
- Feyenoord over 0.576.5%1.31
- Feyenoord over 1.542.4%2.36
- Feyenoord over 2.517.8%5.62
- PSV Eindhoven over 0.576.4%1.31
- PSV Eindhoven over 1.542.3%2.36
- PSV Eindhoven over 2.517.7%5.64
- Feyenoord clean sheet23.6%4.24
- PSV Eindhoven clean sheet23.5%4.25
- Feyenoord win to nil17.4%5.73
- PSV Eindhoven win to nil17.4%5.76
Handicap
- Feyenoord −1.517.8%5.63
- Feyenoord −2.56.7%15.00
- PSV Eindhoven +1.582.2%1.22
- PSV Eindhoven +2.593.3%1.07
- PSV Eindhoven −1.517.6%5.67
- Feyenoord +1.582.4%1.21
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored87
Favourite won54.0%
Avg chance given to result42.9%
1X2 Brier0.553
Over 2.5 called right71.3%
BTTS called right62.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 13 | 38.1% | 23.1% |
| 40–50% | 29 | 44.3% | 41.4% |
| 50–60% | 23 | 55.8% | 56.5% |
| 60–70% | 13 | 63.6% | 84.6% |
| 70–80% | 7 | 75.1% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 65 of 87 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5525 | 0.5170 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.6% | 45.6% |
| Favourite won | 52.3% | 60.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 65 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 87 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.