Feyenoord vs Twente – 21 Dec 2025

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Dec 21 · 13:30 Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam

Feyenoord 2nd · 34 pts · 16 played LLWWL

1–1Full time

Twente 7th · 24 pts · 16 played DDWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Feyenoord were slight favourites.

Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 37). Absences weigh more on Feyenoord. Feyenoord had 7 days of rest, Twente 7 and had to travel 168 km.

Away travel168 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1

Feyenoord52%

Draw25%

Twente23%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.12

Feyenoord53%

Draw25%

Twente22%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.04

Feyenoord54%

Draw24%

Twente22%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.11

Feyenoord44%

Draw26%

Twente30%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.26

Feyenoord51%

Draw26%

Twente23%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.05

Over 2.5 55% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsDennis Higler

Cards per match 3.2
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 42

Team strength

Feyenoord

Twente

51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 37

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

76 AttackIn forecast 41

61 DefenceIn forecast 49

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Feyenoord

Attack—

Defense risk—

Twente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Feyenoord

Twente

2.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.56

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

2.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.84

0.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03

+0.40 Goals minus xGContext -0.28

94% Scored inContext 75%

38% Clean sheetsContext 19%

18.44 ShotsContext 17.25

6.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.81

37% On target shareContext 34%

12.94 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

72% Box shareContext 63%

14% ConversionContext 9%

2.11 OffsidesContext 1.56

9.63 Shots allowedContext 9.88

4.08 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

2.60 BlocksContext 3.19

2.92 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.13

67% Save rateContext 59%

55% PossessionIn forecast 55%

445 PassesContext 458

375 Accurate passesContext 374

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.90

9.56 FoulsContext 11.19

10.13 Fouls sufferedContext 9.75

1.44 Yellow cardsContext 1.81

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 16 and 16 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

2.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.90

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.30

80% Scored inContext 90%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

17.50 ShotsContext 17.00

5.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

32% On target shareContext 34%

11.80 Shots in the boxContext 11.30

69% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 9%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.40

10.60 Shots allowedContext 9.00

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.78

2.38 BlocksContext 2.70

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.11

63% Save rateContext 56%

53% PossessionIn forecast 54%

444 PassesContext 466

377 Accurate passesContext 385

85% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.93

10.20 FoulsContext 10.30

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 8.30

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Feyenoord

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km3,693 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Twente

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel168 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Feyenoord	Twente
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Dec	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	168 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,693 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 6	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	20.9	20.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Feyenoord Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22T. Wellenreuther(G)

43J. Plug 4T. Watanabe 21A. Ahmedhodžić 30M. Lotomba

40L. Valente 6I. Hwang

16L. Sauer 8Q. Timber 11Gonçalo Borges

9A. Ueda

+11 more reported missing outside this XI

Twente Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1L. Unnerstall(G)

39M. Rots 3R. Pröpper 23S. Lemkin 28B. van Rooij

20T. van den Belt 4M. Kjølø

27S. Ørjasæter 14K. Hlynsson 11D. Rots

10S. Lammers

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Feyenoord Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Twente Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Feyenoord-1.4 pp
Draw+0.5 pp
Twente+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Feyenoord · Home 2.25points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 6-0-2
Scored: 2.63
Conceded: 1.38

Twente · Away 1.25points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 2-4-2
Scored: 1.63
Conceded: 1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Feyenoord	Twente
Ajax	L 0–2 A	L 2–3 H
PEC Zwolle	W 6–1 H	L 0–1 A
Telstar	W 2–1 A	D 0–0 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 2–4 H	D 3–3 A
GO Ahead Eagles	L 1–2 A	W 2–0 H
FC Volendam	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 2–3 H	L 0–2 H
Heracles	W 7–0 A	W 2–1 H
Utrecht	W 3–2 H	D 1–1 A
Groningen	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 A
AZ Alkmaar	D 3–3 A	W 1–0 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–0 H	W 3–2 H
Heerenveen	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 A
Sparta Rotterdam	W 4–0 A	W 5–1 A
Excelsior	W 2–1 A	L 0–1 A
NAC Breda	W 2–0 H	D 2–2 H
Points	34 of 48 · 2.13 per game	24 of 48 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 Feyenoord wins1 draws1 Twente wins

Goals per game2.25 – 1.25 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 25%

16 Mar 2025Twente2–6Feyenoord
6 Oct 2024Feyenoord2–1Twente
28 Jan 2024Feyenoord0–0Twente
29 Oct 2023Twente2–1Feyenoord

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Feyenoord	Twente	Forecast
Scored per game	2.56	1.56
Conceded per game	1.25	1.25
Match goals	3.81	2.81	2.90
Over 1.5	88%	75%
Over 2.5	69%	44%	55%
Over 3.5	50%	31%
Both teams scored	56%	63%	57%
Clean sheets	38%	19%
Failed to score	6%	25%
Games	16	16

	Feyenoord	Twente	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.60
Conceded per game	2.30	1.20
Match goals	4.30	2.80	2.90
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	40%	55%
Over 3.5	60%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	70%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Feyenoord	Twente	League
Corners
Corners won	7.33	4.63
Corners conceded	3.40	3.75
Match total	10.73	8.38	10.18
Over 8.5	73% 11/15	38% 6/16
Over 9.5	67% 10/15	25% 4/16
Over 10.5	53% 8/15	25% 4/16
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.94
Opponent cards	1.19	2.13
Match total	2.69	4.07	3.63
Over 3.5	25% 4/16	44% 7/16
Over 4.5	13% 2/16	44% 7/16

	Feyenoord	Twente	League
Corners
Corners won	6.60	4.50
Corners conceded	3.30	4.00
Match total	9.90	8.50	10.18
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	2.00
Opponent cards	1.40	2.10
Match total	2.70	4.10	3.63
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Dennis Higler Netherlands · 42 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.00league 3.40

Red cards0.24league 0.22

Cards 5+29%league 33%

Fouls21.8league 21.8

Penalties0.21league 0.30

Home wins45%league 47%

Feyenoord6 with this referee

Record3-2-1 Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W16 Aug 25A · Excelsior2–12
W25 Apr 25H · PEC Zwolle4–01
D15 Feb 25A · NAC Breda0–01
W2 Nov 24H · AZ Alkmaar3–20
D10 Aug 24H · Willem II1–12

Twente6 with this referee

Record3-2-1 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.2 Pens for · against1 · 1

W24 Aug 25A · Heerenveen2–14
D1 Mar 25A · Groningen1–10
D2 Feb 25A · GO Ahead Eagles2–23
W27 Oct 24H · Heracles5–00
L1 Sep 24A · Utrecht1–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.