Fiorentina
Attack−19%
Defense risk+30%
Our take
Como were slight favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Como. Fiorentina were without Franco Mastantuono and L. Ranieri. Fiorentina had 8 days of rest, Como 3.8 and had to travel 283 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel283 kmRest days8 · 3.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Fiorentina24%
Draw24%
Como52%
Fiorentina30%
Draw27%
Como44%
Fiorentina25%
Draw25%
Como50%
Fiorentina18%
Draw22%
Como60%
Fiorentina25%
Draw23%
Como52%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Firenze)
23°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 7 km/h
- Humidity 55%
Referee · ItalyMarco Di Bello
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 77
Team strength
Fiorentina
Como
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
42
AttackIn forecast
72
34
DefenceIn forecast
67
16
Form indexContext
51
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack+12%
Defense risk−8%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
FiorentinaComo
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.89
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.39
67%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
16.00
ShotsContext
22.33
5.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.67
32%
On target shareContext
30%
10.17
Shots in the boxContext
13.83
62%
Box shareContext
60%
7%
ConversionContext
7%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.67
11.50
Shots allowedContext
14.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.17
1.83
BlocksContext
2.50
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.17
53%
Save rateContext
68%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
384
PassesContext
599
320
Accurate passesContext
540
83%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.58
Team ratingContext
6.99
10.83
FoulsContext
7.67
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.17
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
2.01
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.30
ShotsContext
19.70
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
31%
On target shareContext
33%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
12.50
62%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
1.63
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.70
Shots allowedContext
11.90
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
2.50
BlocksContext
2.44
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
67%
Save rateContext
70%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
382
PassesContext
564
318
Accurate passesContext
506
83%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.97
10.90
FoulsContext
9.50
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fiorentina
LLWDL
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km393 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 16 · 4 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · -3.8 vs expected
Como
WWLDL
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel283 km1,517 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 51 · 7 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fiorentina |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 5 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Serie A 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 14 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 283 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 393 km | 1,517 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
33Viery
5M. Pongračić
3R. Drăgușin
20Álex Jiménez
44N. Fagioli
27C. Ndour
25A. Njie
28Pote
30Franco Mastantuono
32Mateo Pellegrino
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
2M. Kempf
99T. Chalobah
28I. Smolčić
7L. da Cunha
6Luis Milla
8M. Caqueret
10N. Paz
30M. Liberali
9A. Douvikas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fiorentina
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals
Attack line −16.7% · Defence line −22.0% of weighted minutes
- MID Franco Mastantuono Starter 6.90 Att −9.7% Def −5.2%
- DEF L. Ranieri Starter 6.77 Def −7.9%
- MID A. Atta Starter 6.43 Att −7.0% Def −3.7%
- DEF F. Parisi Starter 7.05 Def −5.2%
Como
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals
Attack line −11.0% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes
- ATT Assane Diao Rotation 6.94 Att −6.7%
- ATT M. Kean Rotation 6.68 Att −4.3%
Total impact vs full squads
- Fiorentina-1.2 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Como+1.6 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Fiorentina · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Como · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Fiorentina | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa | L 1–2 A | W 4–1 A |
| Napoli | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Frosinone | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–4 A | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 1 of 12 · 0.25 per game | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Fiorentina wins0 draws2 Como wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 14 Feb 2026Como1–2Fiorentina
- 21 Sep 2025Fiorentina1–2Como
- 16 Feb 2025Fiorentina0–2Como
- 24 Nov 2024Como0–2Fiorentina
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fiorentina | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.50 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Fiorentina | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fiorentina | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 7.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 11.17 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.17 | 3.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Fiorentina | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 6.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 7.70 | 10.20 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.00 | 3.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Di Bello Italy · 77 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.87league 3.29
Red cards0.17league 0.06
Cards 5+43%league 29%
Fouls26.0league 21.5
Penalties0.36league 0.12
Home wins32%league 48%
Fiorentina5 with this referee
Record3-0-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W16 Mar 26A · Cremonese4–10
- L23 Feb 25A · Verona0–13
- L25 Nov 23A · AC Milan0–12
- W2 Oct 23H · Cagliari3–01
- W4 Mar 23H · AC Milan2–13
Como6 with this referee
Record2-2-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W10 May 26A · Verona1–02
- L6 Dec 25A · Inter0–42
- D27 Sep 25H · Cremonese1–14
- W3 May 25A · Parma1–01
- L4 Nov 24A · Empoli0–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fiorentina6 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Como6 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
2
1
76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
3
0-15
2
5
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Como10 games · scored 20 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
5
4
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
