Fiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fiorentina were slight favourites.
Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Genoa. Fiorentina had 5.8 days of rest, Genoa 7.8 and had to travel 197 km.
Away travel197 kmRest days5.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Fiorentina43%
Draw29%
Genoa28%
Fiorentina50%
Draw26%
Genoa24%
Fiorentina43%
Draw29%
Genoa29%
Fiorentina36%
Draw29%
Genoa35%
Fiorentina44%
Draw27%
Genoa29%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Firenze)
No weather data yet
RefereeLuca Massimi
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 32
Team strength
Fiorentina
Genoa
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
42
AttackIn forecast
23
34
DefenceIn forecast
44
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FiorentinaGenoa
1.09
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.37
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
71%
Scored inContext
63%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
12.71
ShotsContext
11.23
3.53
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.83
27%
On target shareContext
34%
8.03
Shots in the boxContext
6.97
62%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.80
12.69
Shots allowedContext
12.77
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.55
3.37
BlocksContext
4.41
3.06
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.32
68%
Save rateContext
70%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
421
PassesContext
376
357
Accurate passesContext
303
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.94
FoulsContext
12.34
15.31
Fouls sufferedContext
14.71
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
70%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.30
ShotsContext
11.50
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
33%
On target shareContext
30%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
64%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.33
13.20
Shots allowedContext
11.10
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.70
BlocksContext
3.20
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
69%
Save rateContext
75%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
403
PassesContext
408
337
Accurate passesContext
334
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.90
FoulsContext
9.50
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
14.90
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fiorentina
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km468 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genoa
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel197 km309 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fiorentina |
Genoa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Serie A 2025-2026, 4 May | 7.8Serie A 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 468 km | 309 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
21R. Gosens
6L. Ranieri
5M. Pongračić
2Dodô
27C. Ndour
44N. Fagioli
8R. Mandragora
19M. Solomon
61Riccardo Braschi
65F. Parisi
Genoa
Confirmed XI
16J. Bijlow(G)
13N. Zätterström
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
3Aarón Martín
32M. Frendrup
4Alexsandro Amorim
77M. Ellertsson
9Vítinha
21J. Ekhator
29L. Colombo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fiorentina
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genoa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fiorentina+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Genoa-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Fiorentina · Home
1.12points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-7-6
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 1.18
Genoa · Away
1.06points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-7
- Scored
- 1.12
- Conceded
- 1.41
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Fiorentina | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | L 0–4 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Sassuolo | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Lecce | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Lazio | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Verona | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Inter | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | L 0–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Cremonese | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Parma | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Udinese | L 0–3 AW 5–1 H | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Pisa | W 1–0 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Como | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Torino | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Napoli | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Cagliari | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | W 3–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Bologna | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Juventus | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 36 of 102 · 1.06 per game | 39 of 102 · 1.15 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
5 Fiorentina wins2 draws0 Genoa wins
Goals per game2.57 – 0.86
Over 2.571%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets29% · 0%
- 9 Nov 2025Genoa2–2Fiorentina
- 2 Feb 2025Fiorentina2–1Genoa
- 31 Oct 2024Genoa0–1Fiorentina
- 15 Apr 2024Fiorentina1–1Genoa
- 19 Aug 2023Genoa1–4Fiorentina
- 17 Jan 2022Fiorentina6–0Genoa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fiorentina | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.09 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.37 | |
| Match goals | 2.49 | 2.51 | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 54% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 54% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 37% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Fiorentina | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.20 | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fiorentina | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.47 | 3.45 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.59 | 5.26 | |
| Match total | 9.06 | 8.71 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 20/34 | 48% 15/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 17/34 | 35% 11/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 9/34 | 16% 5/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.31 | 2.66 | |
| Match total | 4.71 | 4.46 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 25/35 | 77% 27/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 21/35 | 43% 15/35 | |
| Fiorentina | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 7.70 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.10 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Massimi 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.34league 3.70
Red cards0.28league 0.18
Cards 5+47%league 34%
Fouls26.1league 24.8
Penalties0.25league 0.28
Home wins47%league 39%
Fiorentina4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D21 May 23A · Torino1–12
- D17 Oct 22A · Lecce1–14
- W3 Apr 22H · Empoli1–01
- L18 Oct 21A · Venezia0–15
GenoaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fiorentina34 games · scored 37 · conceded 47
3
8
0-15
7
6
16-30
4
6
31-45
10
10
46-60
7
7
61-75
6
10
76-90
Genoa35 games · scored 40 · conceded 48
5
7
0-15
5
8
16-30
6
7
31-45
4
9
46-60
8
10
61-75
12
7
76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
