Fortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fortuna Sittard
14th · 18 pts · 16 played
WDDLL
4–3Full time
AZ Alkmaar
7th · 25 pts · 15 played
WLLLD
Our take
AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 17). Fortuna Sittard had 7.8 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 14.1 and had to travel 197 km.
Away travel197 kmRest days7.8 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Fortuna Sittard23%
Draw24%
AZ Alkmaar52%
Fortuna Sittard24%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar51%
Fortuna Sittard24%
Draw25%
AZ Alkmaar52%
Fortuna Sittard18%
Draw22%
AZ Alkmaar60%
Fortuna Sittard24%
Draw25%
AZ Alkmaar51%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sittard)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 41
Team strength
Fortuna SittardAZ Alkmaar
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
19
AttackIn forecast
52
19
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fortuna SittardAZ Alkmaar
1.31
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.87
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
81%
Scored inContext
93%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.44
ShotsContext
16.20
4.87
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
34%
On target shareContext
36%
8.63
Shots in the boxContext
10.73
64%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
1.93
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.06
Shots allowedContext
12.73
5.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.93
3.80
BlocksContext
3.86
3.69
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.57
73%
Save rateContext
70%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
377
PassesContext
455
294
Accurate passesContext
379
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.90
13.31
FoulsContext
10.07
11.13
Fouls sufferedContext
10.47
2.38
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.80
ShotsContext
14.90
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
34%
On target shareContext
40%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
63%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.80
12.60
Shots allowedContext
10.60
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.67
BlocksContext
3.30
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
75%
Save rateContext
62%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
370
PassesContext
492
287
Accurate passesContext
415
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.88
13.50
FoulsContext
8.90
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fortuna Sittard
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km338 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AZ Alkmaar
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel197 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fortuna Sittard |
AZ Alkmaar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 14.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 338 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.9 | 20 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
4S. Adewoye
44Iván Márquez
6S. van Ottele
12Ivo Pinto
80R. Fosso
23P. Brittijn
7K. Peterson
17J. Lonwijk
52M. Ihattaren
9K. Sierhuis
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)
15Mateo Chávez
5Alexandre Penetra
3W. Goes
34M. de Wit
6P. Koopmeiners
26K. Smit
17I. Jensen
10S. Mijnans
7Weslley Patati
9T. Parrott
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fortuna Sittard
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AZ Alkmaar
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fortuna Sittard-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- AZ Alkmaar+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Fortuna Sittard · Home
1.75points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.25
AZ Alkmaar · Away
1.63points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Fortuna Sittard | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Ajax | L 1–3 H | W 2–0 A |
| Heracles | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Heerenveen | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 2–5 A | L 1–5 H |
| Groningen | L 1–2 H | W 4–1 H |
| FC Volendam | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Twente | L 2–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Utrecht | W 1–0 H | W 4–1 H |
| Feyenoord | L 0–2 A | D 3–3 H |
| Telstar | W 3–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 3–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| NAC Breda | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 18 of 45 · 1.20 per game | 25 of 45 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Fortuna Sittard wins0 draws3 AZ Alkmaar wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 23 Feb 2025AZ Alkmaar1–0Fortuna Sittard
- 6 Oct 2024Fortuna Sittard1–0AZ Alkmaar
- 17 Feb 2024Fortuna Sittard1–2AZ Alkmaar
- 1 Oct 2023AZ Alkmaar4–0Fortuna Sittard
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fortuna Sittard | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.31 | 1.87 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.94 | 3.47 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 73% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 53% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 73% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 7% | |
| Games | 16 | 15 |
| Fortuna Sittard | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fortuna Sittard | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.27 | 6.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.27 | 4.27 | |
| Match total | 10.54 | 10.40 | 10.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 12/15 | 73% 11/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 9/15 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 53% 8/15 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.69 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.13 | 4.27 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 8/16 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 7/16 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Fortuna Sittard | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.10 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 10.50 | 10.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.70 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.46league 3.37
Red cards0.10league 0.23
Cards 5+22%league 33%
Fouls19.6league 21.8
Penalties0.22league 0.30
Home wins56%league 47%
Fortuna Sittard2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L19 Jan 25A · NEC Nijmegen1–45
- W14 Dec 24H · Waalwijk3–21
AZ Alkmaar2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W2 Feb 25A · Willem II2–00
- W8 Dec 24H · Ajax2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fortuna Sittard16 games · scored 21 · conceded 26
5
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
7
4
76-90
AZ Alkmaar15 games · scored 28 · conceded 24
4
4
0-15
4
3
16-30
9
5
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
5
5
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
