Fortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fortuna Sittard
11th · 26 pts · 23 played
LWLDL
First leg0–1
2–1Full time
Excelsior
12th · 26 pts · 23 played
DDDWL
Our take
Fortuna Sittard were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Excelsior. Fortuna Sittard had 6 days of rest, Excelsior 6.1 and had to travel 141 km.
Away travel141 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Fortuna Sittard41%
Draw27%
Excelsior32%
Fortuna Sittard43%
Draw27%
Excelsior30%
Fortuna Sittard41%
Draw28%
Excelsior32%
Fortuna Sittard34%
Draw27%
Excelsior39%
Fortuna Sittard41%
Draw27%
Excelsior32%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sittard)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartin Van den Kerkhof
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 33
Team strength
Fortuna SittardExcelsior
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
19
AttackIn forecast
21
19
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisExcelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fortuna SittardExcelsior
1.48
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.09
1.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.81
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
87%
Scored inContext
78%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
12.52
ShotsContext
11.09
4.55
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.74
35%
On target shareContext
34%
7.78
Shots in the boxContext
7.22
61%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.95
OffsidesContext
1.33
14.61
Shots allowedContext
15.52
5.65
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.91
4.09
BlocksContext
4.35
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.13
71%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
366
PassesContext
385
283
Accurate passesContext
301
77%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.09
FoulsContext
12.35
11.26
Fouls sufferedContext
8.39
2.22
Yellow cardsContext
1.48
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
90%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.00
ShotsContext
9.80
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
32%
On target shareContext
33%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
57%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.63
15.20
Shots allowedContext
14.70
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.33
BlocksContext
4.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
68%
Save rateContext
71%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
350
PassesContext
420
269
Accurate passesContext
334
77%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.20
FoulsContext
11.10
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
7.90
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fortuna Sittard
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km334 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Excelsior
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel141 km85 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fortuna Sittard |
Excelsior |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Feb | 6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 141 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 334 km | 85 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
1L. Koopmans(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
28J. Hubner
44Iván Márquez
21N. Kasanwirjo
12Ivo Pinto
70L. Duijvestijn
20É. Michut
18D. Limnios
9K. Sierhuis
52M. Ihattaren
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
12A. Zagré
3R. Meissen
4C. Widell
14L. Schouten
15Simon Janssen
11G. de Regt
20L. Hartjes
23I. Yegoian
30D. Sanches Fernandes
10N. Naujoks
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fortuna Sittard
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Excelsior
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fortuna Sittard+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Excelsior+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Fortuna Sittard · Home
1.64points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-3
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 1.55
Excelsior · Away
1.09points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-5
- Scored
- 1.09
- Conceded
- 2.09
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fortuna Sittard | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Heracles | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Groningen | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 HL 2–5 A | L 1–5 AL 1–2 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 4–3 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| PEC Zwolle | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Heerenveen | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| FC Volendam | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Twente | L 2–3 A | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Utrecht | W 1–0 H | L 1–4 A |
| Feyenoord | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Telstar | W 3–1 A | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 3–2 H | L 0–5 A |
| NAC Breda | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 26 of 66 · 1.18 per game | 23 of 66 · 1.05 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Fortuna Sittard wins1 draws1 Excelsior wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 19 Oct 2025Excelsior1–0Fortuna Sittard
- 26 Aug 2023Excelsior2–2Fortuna Sittard
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fortuna Sittard | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.48 | 1.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.78 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 61% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 74% | 61% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 22% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Fortuna Sittard | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.70 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fortuna Sittard | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.76 | 4.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.76 | 5.35 | |
| Match total | 11.52 | 9.52 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 18/21 | 65% 15/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 14/21 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 12/21 | 30% 7/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.26 | 1.61 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.48 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 3.74 | 3.04 | 3.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 11/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 9/23 | 26% 6/23 | |
| Fortuna Sittard | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.00 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 13.33 | 9.20 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.30 | 3.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Van den Kerkhof Netherlands · 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.39league 3.31
Red cards0.30league 0.20
Cards 5+18%league 31%
Fouls18.8league 21.6
Penalties0.27league 0.25
Home wins42%league 43%
Fortuna Sittard4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- L17 Aug 25A · NAC Breda1–23
- W28 Feb 25A · Waalwijk2–14
- L18 Sep 24A · Ajax0–52
- L8 Oct 23H · Twente0–33
Excelsior2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D1 Nov 25A · Telstar2–22
- D17 Sep 23H · Almere City FC0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fortuna Sittard23 games · scored 34 · conceded 42
8
7
0-15
1
9
16-30
8
8
31-45
3
5
46-60
4
5
61-75
10
8
76-90
Excelsior23 games · scored 25 · conceded 39
6
3
0-15
3
6
16-30
5
6
31-45
1
9
46-60
2
7
61-75
8
8
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 15 · conceded 21
4
5
0-15
1
4
16-30
6
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
