Fortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fortuna Sittard
9th · 10 pts · 7 played
WWLWL
1–0Full time
FC Volendam
12th · 7 pts · 7 played
DDLLW
Our take
Fortuna Sittard were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Fortuna Sittard had 7.9 days of rest, FC Volendam 7 and had to travel 175 km.
Away travel175 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Fortuna Sittard49%
Draw26%
FC Volendam25%
Fortuna Sittard49%
Draw26%
FC Volendam25%
Fortuna Sittard50%
Draw26%
FC Volendam25%
Fortuna Sittard42%
Draw27%
FC Volendam31%
Fortuna Sittard49%
Draw26%
FC Volendam25%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sittard)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsIngmar Oostrom
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 21
Team strength
Fortuna SittardFC Volendam
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
19
AttackIn forecast
14
19
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fortuna SittardFC Volendam
1.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.67
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
86%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.14
ShotsContext
11.86
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.86
35%
On target shareContext
33%
7.71
Shots in the boxContext
7.14
62%
Box shareContext
59%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
14.29
Shots allowedContext
16.29
5.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
4.00
BlocksContext
4.14
3.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.57
71%
Save rateContext
76%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
388
PassesContext
349
302
Accurate passesContext
275
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.00
FoulsContext
10.43
10.14
Fouls sufferedContext
12.29
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.70
ShotsContext
10.40
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
33%
On target shareContext
35%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
63%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.88
12.90
Shots allowedContext
20.10
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.30
3.80
BlocksContext
5.40
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.30
76%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
377
PassesContext
315
293
Accurate passesContext
238
78%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.40
FoulsContext
9.90
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fortuna Sittard
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km306 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Volendam
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel175 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fortuna Sittard |
FC Volendam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 26 Sep | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 175 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 306 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.8 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
44Iván Márquez
4S. Adewoye
12Ivo Pinto
23P. Brittijn
80R. Fosso
17J. Lonwijk
7K. Peterson
9K. Sierhuis
18D. Limnios
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
32Y. Leliendal
20N. Verschuren
3M. Amevor
5P. Ugwu
18N. Bukala
8G. Yah
17J. Ideho
40R. van Cruijsen
10B. Kuwas
9H. Veerman
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fortuna Sittard
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Volendam
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fortuna Sittard-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Volendam+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Fortuna Sittard · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
FC Volendam · Away
0.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Fortuna Sittard | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Telstar | W 3–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Fortuna Sittard wins0 draws0 FC Volendam wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 28 Jan 2024FC Volendam0–1Fortuna Sittard
- 16 Sep 2023Fortuna Sittard3–1FC Volendam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fortuna Sittard | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.43 | 3.00 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 71% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 86% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Fortuna Sittard | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.43 | 3.00 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 71% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 86% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fortuna Sittard | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.17 | 5.57 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.57 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 1.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 3.72 | 3.72 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Fortuna Sittard | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 6.70 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.40 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.60 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ingmar Oostrom Netherlands · 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.38league 3.54
Red cards0.24league 0.22
Cards 5+38%league 37%
Fouls22.0league 22.5
Penalties0.24league 0.20
Home wins43%league 48%
Fortuna Sittard1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L29 Mar 25H · Sparta Rotterdam0–33
FC Volendam2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L14 Jan 24H · Almere City FC0–11
- D23 Sep 23H · Heracles2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fortuna Sittard7 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
FC Volendam7 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
3
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 13 · conceded 22
4
6
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
6
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
