Fortuna Sittard
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Fortuna Sittard
9th · 10 pts · 7 played
WWLWL
1–0Full time
FC Volendam
12th · 7 pts · 7 played
DDLLW
Fortuna Sittard49.5%fair odds 2.02
Draw25.7%fair odds 3.90
FC Volendam24.9%fair odds 4.02
Expected goals1.65 – 1.11total 2.76
Likeliest score1–112.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Volendam
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Fortuna Sittard ↓ · FC Volendam → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Fortuna Sittard goals, columns FC Volendam goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%8.19
- 1–09.9%10.13
- 2–19.6%10.45
- 2–08.7%11.55
- 0–07.0%14.35
- 0–16.4%15.60
- 1–26.4%15.60
- 2–25.3%18.91
- 3–15.3%19.00
- 3–04.8%21.00
Winning margin
11.3%
Fortuna Sittard by 3+
fair 8.82
15.3%
Fortuna Sittard by 2
fair 6.55
22.8%
Fortuna Sittard by 1
fair 4.38
25.7%
Draw
fair 3.90
15.1%
FC Volendam by 1
fair 6.62
6.9%
FC Volendam by 2
fair 14.59
2.9%
FC Volendam by 3+
fair 34.22
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Fortuna Sittard goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
9%4+
FC Volendam goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard win | 49.5% | 49.1% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 25.7% | 25.8% | -0.1 pp |
| FC Volendam win | 24.9% | 25.0% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.0% | 51.5% | +0.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.7% | 54.4% | +0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Fortuna Sittard | 1.65 | 1.63 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals FC Volendam | 1.11 | 1.10 | +0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Fortuna Sittard win49.5%2.02
- Draw25.7%3.90
- FC Volendam win24.9%4.02
- Double chance Fortuna Sittard or draw75.1%1.33
- Double chance Fortuna Sittard or FC Volendam74.3%1.35
- Double chance FC Volendam or draw50.5%1.98
- Draw no bet Fortuna Sittard66.5%1.50
- Draw no bet FC Volendam33.5%2.99
Goals
- Over 0.593.0%1.07
- Over 1.576.7%1.30
- Over 2.552.0%1.92
- Over 3.529.8%3.35
- Over 4.514.6%6.87
- Under 1.523.3%4.30
- Under 2.548.0%2.08
- Under 3.570.2%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes54.7%1.83
- No45.3%2.21
- Yes and over 2.542.5%2.36
- Fortuna Sittard win and yes23.3%4.29
- Draw and yes18.7%5.35
- FC Volendam win and yes12.6%7.91
Team goals
- Fortuna Sittard over 0.580.8%1.24
- Fortuna Sittard over 1.549.1%2.04
- Fortuna Sittard over 2.523.0%4.35
- FC Volendam over 0.566.9%1.49
- FC Volendam over 1.530.3%3.30
- FC Volendam over 2.510.1%9.93
- Fortuna Sittard clean sheet33.1%3.02
- FC Volendam clean sheet19.2%5.21
- Fortuna Sittard win to nil26.1%3.83
- FC Volendam win to nil12.2%8.18
Handicap
- Fortuna Sittard −1.526.6%3.76
- Fortuna Sittard −2.511.3%8.82
- FC Volendam +1.573.4%1.36
- FC Volendam +2.588.7%1.13
- FC Volendam −1.59.8%10.23
- Fortuna Sittard +1.590.2%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored65
Favourite won52.3%
Avg chance given to result42.9%
1X2 Brier0.560
Over 2.5 called right69.2%
BTTS called right61.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 9 | 37.9% | 22.2% |
| 40–50% | 19 | 43.9% | 36.8% |
| 50–60% | 20 | 55.9% | 55.0% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 64.0% | 77.8% |
| 70–80% | 6 | 75.2% | 83.3% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 43 of 65 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5630 | 0.5330 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.4% | 44.9% |
| Favourite won | 48.8% | 58.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 43 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 65 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.