Fortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
GO Ahead Eagles were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 16). Fortuna Sittard had ? days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles ? and had to travel 141 km.
Away travel141 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Fortuna Sittard33%
Draw27%
GO Ahead Eagles41%
Fortuna Sittard33%
Draw27%
GO Ahead Eagles40%
Fortuna Sittard33%
Draw27%
GO Ahead Eagles41%
Fortuna Sittard26%
Draw26%
GO Ahead Eagles48%
Fortuna Sittard33%
Draw27%
GO Ahead Eagles40%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sittard)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRob Dieperink
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 20
Team strength
Fortuna Sittard
GO Ahead Eagles
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
19
AttackIn forecast
29
19
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fortuna SittardGO Ahead Eagles
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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—
Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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—
ShotsContext
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—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.42
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
60%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.20
ShotsContext
14.80
2.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
26%
On target shareContext
32%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
67%
Box shareContext
62%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.10
Shots allowedContext
17.20
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.00
BlocksContext
5.33
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.30
69%
Save rateContext
72%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
358
PassesContext
502
279
Accurate passesContext
425
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.06
12.20
FoulsContext
8.00
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fortuna Sittard
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel141 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fortuna Sittard |
GO Ahead Eagles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 141 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 8.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
28J. Hubner
4S. Adewoye
12Ivo Pinto
20É. Michut
80R. Fosso
7K. Peterson
23P. Brittijn
18D. Limnios
19P. Gladon
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
3G. Nauber
2M. Deijl
8H. Linthorst
6C. Twigt
17M. Suray
16V. Edvardsen
18R. Margaret
9M. Smit
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fortuna Sittard
Absences are shown before kick-off
GO Ahead Eagles
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fortuna Sittard+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GO Ahead Eagles+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Fortuna Sittard · Home
No home games yet this season.
GO Ahead Eagles · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Fortuna Sittard wins0 draws2 GO Ahead Eagles wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets33% · 67%
- 10 Jan 2025Fortuna Sittard0–3GO Ahead Eagles
- 11 Aug 2024GO Ahead Eagles0–2Fortuna Sittard
- 22 Sep 2023GO Ahead Eagles3–0Fortuna Sittard
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fortuna Sittard | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 57% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Fortuna Sittard | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 57% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fortuna Sittard | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Fortuna Sittard | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 10.90 | |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 3.30 | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rob Dieperink Netherlands · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.15
Red cards0.20
Cards 5+30%
Fouls21.4
Penalties0.25
Home wins35%
Fortuna Sittard5 with this referee
Record0-2-3
Cards · opp.2.4 · 0.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L3 May 25A · PSV Eindhoven1–42
- L10 Jan 25H · GO Ahead Eagles0–32
- D20 Oct 24A · Willem II0–01
- L21 Oct 23A · PSV Eindhoven1–31
- D13 Aug 23A · Feyenoord0–06
GO Ahead Eagles3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W10 Jan 25A · Fortuna Sittard3–00
- W29 Sep 24A · Groningen1–03
- D17 Sep 23A · PEC Zwolle1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fortuna SittardGO Ahead EaglesFortuna Sittard10 games · scored 6 · conceded 12
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
5
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
