Fortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fortuna Sittard
10th · 17 pts · 13 played
LLLWD
1–1Full time
Heracles
17th · 12 pts · 13 played
LLWWW
Our take
Fortuna Sittard were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Fortuna Sittard had 6.9 days of rest, Heracles 6.9 and had to travel 161 km.
Away travel161 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fortuna Sittard46%
Draw26%
Heracles27%
Fortuna Sittard45%
Draw27%
Heracles28%
Fortuna Sittard46%
Draw26%
Heracles28%
Fortuna Sittard39%
Draw27%
Heracles34%
Fortuna Sittard46%
Draw26%
Heracles27%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sittard)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRobin Hensgens
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.10
- Matches 21
Team strength
Fortuna SittardHeracles
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
9
19
AttackIn forecast
7
19
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fortuna SittardHeracles
1.46
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.62
1.62
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.69
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.90
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
85%
Scored inContext
62%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
8%
12.15
ShotsContext
11.54
4.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
37%
On target shareContext
37%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.23
64%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.18
OffsidesContext
1.38
14.15
Shots allowedContext
17.00
5.46
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.85
3.92
BlocksContext
5.54
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
73%
Save rateContext
58%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
379
PassesContext
345
294
Accurate passesContext
267
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.00
FoulsContext
11.46
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.23
Yellow cardsContext
1.54
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.73
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.20
ShotsContext
12.40
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.75
40%
On target shareContext
37%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
64%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
16%
2.10
OffsidesContext
1.50
14.90
Shots allowedContext
15.10
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
4.10
BlocksContext
4.60
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
75%
Save rateContext
59%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
364
PassesContext
363
278
Accurate passesContext
283
76%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.80
FoulsContext
10.90
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fortuna Sittard
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km282 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Heracles
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel161 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fortuna Sittard |
Heracles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 161 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 282 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
44Iván Márquez
4S. Adewoye
12Ivo Pinto
80R. Fosso
20É. Michut
7K. Peterson
52M. Ihattaren
18D. Limnios
9K. Sierhuis
Heracles
Confirmed XI
16T. Jansink(G)
24I. Mesík
18A. Van Hoorenbeeck
4D. Mirani
23M. te Wierik
73W. Ould-Chikh
13J. Žambůrek
70A. Hrustić
7B. Limbombe
9J. Hornkamp
19L. Kulenović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fortuna Sittard
Absences are shown before kick-off
Heracles
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fortuna Sittard+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Heracles-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Fortuna Sittard · Home
2.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Heracles · Away
0.43points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-6
- Scored
- 0.57
- Conceded
- 2.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Fortuna Sittard | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Groningen | L 1–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| Excelsior | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| FC Volendam | W 1–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Twente | L 2–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Utrecht | W 1–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Feyenoord | L 0–2 A | L 0–7 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 3–2 H | L 1–4 H |
| NAC Breda | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 H | W 4–2 H |
| Points | 11 of 30 · 1.10 per game | 9 of 30 · 0.90 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Fortuna Sittard wins1 draws0 Heracles wins
Goals per game2.33 – 1.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 8 Mar 2025Fortuna Sittard1–0Heracles
- 7 Dec 2024Heracles2–2Fortuna Sittard
- 10 Nov 2023Fortuna Sittard4–1Heracles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fortuna Sittard | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.46 | 1.62 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.62 | 2.69 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 4.31 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 92% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 46% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 54% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 8% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 38% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Fortuna Sittard | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 4.50 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 100% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fortuna Sittard | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.54 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.83 | 6.08 | |
| Match total | 10.16 | 10.62 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 10/12 | 77% 10/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 7/12 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 6/12 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.23 | 1.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.15 | 1.92 | |
| Match total | 3.38 | 3.61 | 3.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 5/13 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 4/13 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Fortuna Sittard | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 10.90 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 3.70 | 3.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Hensgens Netherlands · 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.76league 3.30
Red cards0.24league 0.22
Cards 5+24%league 31%
Fouls20.9league 22.0
Penalties0.10league 0.28
Home wins48%league 49%
Fortuna Sittard2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D28 Sep 24A · Sparta Rotterdam1–12
- D26 Aug 23A · Excelsior2–22
Heracles1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L8 Nov 24A · Utrecht0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fortuna Sittard13 games · scored 19 · conceded 21
4
2
0-15
5
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
7
4
76-90
Heracles13 games · scored 21 · conceded 35
3
5
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
9
31-45
5
5
46-60
3
5
61-75
3
9
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 20 · conceded 25
2
5
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
6
31-45
5
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
