Fortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fortuna Sittard
12th · 22 pts · 18 played
DLLWD
First leg2–5
1–2Full time
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 49 pts · 18 played
WWWWW
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 18). PSV Eindhoven usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Fortuna Sittard had 6.2 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 7 and had to travel 56 km.
Away travel56 kmRest days6.2 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fortuna Sittard10%
Draw17%
PSV Eindhoven74%
Fortuna Sittard10%
Draw18%
PSV Eindhoven72%
Fortuna Sittard9%
Draw16%
PSV Eindhoven74%
Fortuna Sittard7%
Draw13%
PSV Eindhoven80%
Fortuna Sittard10%
Draw18%
PSV Eindhoven72%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sittard)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 46
Team strength
Fortuna SittardPSV Eindhoven
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
19
AttackIn forecast
60
19
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fortuna SittardPSV Eindhoven
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.17
1.72
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.91
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+1.26
83%
Scored inContext
94%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
13.39
ShotsContext
17.28
4.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.22
34%
On target shareContext
42%
8.56
Shots in the boxContext
11.89
64%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
18%
1.93
OffsidesContext
2.08
14.06
Shots allowedContext
11.56
5.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.06
4.06
BlocksContext
3.47
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.76
71%
Save rateContext
68%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
367
PassesContext
539
285
Accurate passesContext
469
78%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.09
13.33
FoulsContext
11.72
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.22
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.90
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+1.26
80%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.00
ShotsContext
13.20
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
36%
On target shareContext
43%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
63%
Box shareContext
74%
10%
ConversionContext
22%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.57
14.50
Shots allowedContext
13.40
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.33
BlocksContext
3.71
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
71%
Save rateContext
75%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
348
PassesContext
492
268
Accurate passesContext
426
77%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.96
13.60
FoulsContext
10.60
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.30
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fortuna Sittard
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km282 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PSV Eindhoven
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel56 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fortuna Sittard |
PSV Eindhoven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 Jan | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 56 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 282 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
4S. Adewoye
44Iván Márquez
21N. Kasanwirjo
12Ivo Pinto
23P. Brittijn
20É. Michut
7K. Peterson
70L. Duijvestijn
18D. Limnios
9K. Sierhuis
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
17Mauro Júnior
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
22J. Schouten
25K. Sildillia
10P. Wanner
23J. Veerman
11C. Driouech
20G. Til
5I. Perišić
19E. Bajraktarević
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fortuna Sittard
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fortuna Sittard+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- PSV Eindhoven-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Fortuna Sittard · Home
1.89points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-2
- Scored
- 1.78
- Conceded
- 1.44
PSV Eindhoven · Away
3.00points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-0-0
- Scored
- 2.89
- Conceded
- 0.89
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fortuna Sittard | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 4–3 H | W 5–1 A |
| PEC Zwolle | L 0–1 A | W 4–0 A |
| Ajax | L 1–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| Heracles | D 1–1 H | W 4–3 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 1–1 A | W 6–1 H |
| Heerenveen | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Groningen | L 1–2 H | W 4–2 H |
| Excelsior | L 0–1 A | W 5–1 HW 2–1 A |
| FC Volendam | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Twente | L 2–3 A | W 2–0 A |
| Utrecht | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Feyenoord | L 0–2 A | W 3–2 A |
| Telstar | W 3–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 3–2 H | W 5–3 A |
| NAC Breda | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 22 of 51 · 1.29 per game | 46 of 51 · 2.71 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Fortuna Sittard wins0 draws4 PSV Eindhoven wins
Goals per game1.25 – 3.75
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 31 Oct 2025PSV Eindhoven5–2Fortuna Sittard
- 3 May 2025PSV Eindhoven4–1Fortuna Sittard
- 22 Sep 2024Fortuna Sittard1–3PSV Eindhoven
- 21 Oct 2023PSV Eindhoven3–1Fortuna Sittard
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fortuna Sittard | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 3.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.72 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 3.22 | 4.39 | 3.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 94% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 78% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 6% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Fortuna Sittard | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 3.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 4.30 | 3.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fortuna Sittard | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.65 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 10.65 | 10.66 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 82% 14/17 | 78% 14/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 11/17 | 78% 14/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 53% 9/17 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.39 | 1.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.61 | |
| Match total | 3.89 | 3.00 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 8/18 | 33% 6/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 7/18 | 22% 4/18 | |
| Fortuna Sittard | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 11.20 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.30 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.28league 3.34
Red cards0.15league 0.22
Cards 5+30%league 31%
Fouls19.6league 21.6
Penalties0.30league 0.29
Home wins48%league 46%
Fortuna Sittard4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W8 Nov 25H · Heerenveen2–02
- L31 Aug 24H · NEC Nijmegen0–31
- D24 Jan 24A · Almere City FC0–01
- L25 Nov 23A · Heerenveen0–32
PSV Eindhoven2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W15 Mar 25A · Waalwijk3–00
- L18 Jan 25A · PEC Zwolle1–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fortuna Sittard18 games · scored 27 · conceded 31
6
3
0-15
1
7
16-30
4
7
31-45
3
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
9
5
76-90
PSV Eindhoven18 games · scored 57 · conceded 22
8
1
0-15
13
1
16-30
10
7
31-45
10
3
46-60
8
7
61-75
8
3
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
2
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 29 · conceded 11
6
0-15
6
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
