Fortuna Sittard
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Fortuna Sittard
12th · 22 pts · 18 played
DLLWD
First leg2–5
1–2Full time
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 49 pts · 18 played
WWWWW
Fortuna Sittard9.5%fair odds 10.47
Draw16.5%fair odds 6.06
PSV Eindhoven74.0%fair odds 1.35
Expected goals0.80 – 2.50total 3.30
Likeliest score0–211.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
PSV Eindhoven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Fortuna Sittard ↓ · PSV Eindhoven → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Fortuna Sittard goals, columns PSV Eindhoven goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–211.5%8.71
- 0–39.6%10.45
- 1–29.2%10.83
- 0–18.8%11.36
- 1–17.8%12.85
- 1–37.7%13.00
- 0–46.0%16.73
- 1–44.8%20.82
- 0–04.1%24.57
- 2–23.7%26.96
Winning margin
0.6%
Fortuna Sittard by 3+
fair 160.13
2.2%
Fortuna Sittard by 2
fair 45.21
6.7%
Fortuna Sittard by 1
fair 14.90
16.5%
Draw
fair 6.06
21.7%
PSV Eindhoven by 1
fair 4.61
21.4%
PSV Eindhoven by 2
fair 4.68
30.9%
PSV Eindhoven by 3+
fair 3.24
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
Fortuna Sittard goals
45%0
36%1
14%2
4%3
1%4+
PSV Eindhoven goals
8%0
21%1
26%2
21%3
24%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard win | 9.5% | 10.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 16.5% | 17.7% | -1.2 pp |
| PSV Eindhoven win | 74.0% | 72.2% | +1.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.1% | 60.5% | +3.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.1% | 49.3% | +1.8 pp |
| Expected goals Fortuna Sittard | 0.80 | 0.78 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals PSV Eindhoven | 2.50 | 2.35 | +0.15 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Fortuna Sittard win9.5%10.47
- Draw16.5%6.06
- PSV Eindhoven win74.0%1.35
- Double chance Fortuna Sittard or draw26.0%3.84
- Double chance Fortuna Sittard or PSV Eindhoven83.5%1.20
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw90.5%1.11
- Draw no bet Fortuna Sittard11.4%8.75
- Draw no bet PSV Eindhoven88.6%1.13
Goals
- Over 0.595.9%1.04
- Over 1.584.6%1.18
- Over 2.564.1%1.56
- Over 3.542.0%2.38
- Over 4.523.8%4.20
- Under 1.515.4%6.48
- Under 2.535.9%2.79
- Under 3.558.0%1.72
Both teams to score
- Yes51.1%1.96
- No48.9%2.04
- Yes and over 2.543.3%2.31
- Fortuna Sittard win and yes5.4%18.52
- Draw and yes12.4%8.05
- PSV Eindhoven win and yes33.3%3.01
Team goals
- Fortuna Sittard over 0.555.2%1.81
- Fortuna Sittard over 1.519.3%5.19
- Fortuna Sittard over 2.54.8%20.86
- PSV Eindhoven over 0.591.8%1.09
- PSV Eindhoven over 1.571.2%1.40
- PSV Eindhoven over 2.545.6%2.19
- Fortuna Sittard clean sheet8.2%12.17
- PSV Eindhoven clean sheet44.8%2.23
- Fortuna Sittard win to nil4.1%24.12
- PSV Eindhoven win to nil40.7%2.46
Handicap
- Fortuna Sittard −1.52.8%35.26
- Fortuna Sittard −2.50.6%160.13
- PSV Eindhoven +1.597.2%1.03
- PSV Eindhoven +2.599.4%1.01
- PSV Eindhoven −1.552.3%1.91
- Fortuna Sittard +1.547.7%2.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored162
Favourite won51.9%
Avg chance given to result41.7%
1X2 Brier0.574
Over 2.5 called right63.6%
BTTS called right61.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 31 | 38.0% | 32.3% |
| 40–50% | 57 | 45.0% | 45.6% |
| 50–60% | 39 | 55.2% | 51.3% |
| 60–70% | 18 | 64.0% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 11 | 74.6% | 90.9% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 84.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 139 of 162 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5770 | 0.5681 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.4% | 43.1% |
| Favourite won | 51.1% | 54.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 139 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 162 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.