Fortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fortuna Sittard
11th · 32 pts · 25 played
LDLWW
First leg3–1
1–4Full time
Telstar
17th · 21 pts · 25 played
LDDLW
Our take
Fortuna Sittard were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Fortuna Sittard. Fortuna Sittard had 7.7 days of rest, Telstar 8.8 and had to travel 183 km.
Away travel183 kmRest days7.7 · 8.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Fortuna Sittard47%
Draw25%
Telstar28%
Fortuna Sittard43%
Draw27%
Telstar30%
Fortuna Sittard48%
Draw25%
Telstar27%
Fortuna Sittard40%
Draw25%
Telstar35%
Fortuna Sittard48%
Draw25%
Telstar28%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sittard)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 54
Team strength
Fortuna SittardTelstar
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
19
AttackIn forecast
24
19
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTelstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fortuna SittardTelstar
1.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.64
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
88%
Scored inContext
76%
12%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
12.64
ShotsContext
12.44
4.79
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.58
36%
On target shareContext
35%
7.96
Shots in the boxContext
7.74
62%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.95
OffsidesContext
2.24
14.44
Shots allowedContext
15.56
5.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.25
4.13
BlocksContext
4.54
3.84
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
70%
Save rateContext
72%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
362
PassesContext
358
279
Accurate passesContext
276
77%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.80
FoulsContext
11.28
11.24
Fouls sufferedContext
10.48
2.12
Yellow cardsContext
1.24
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.75
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
90%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.20
ShotsContext
11.20
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
40%
On target shareContext
38%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
60%
Box shareContext
57%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.22
16.00
Shots allowedContext
15.20
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
4.40
BlocksContext
4.11
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
65%
Save rateContext
71%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
352
PassesContext
348
269
Accurate passesContext
262
76%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.00
FoulsContext
11.60
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fortuna Sittard
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km188 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Telstar
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel183 km122 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fortuna Sittard |
Telstar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 8.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 27 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 183 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 188 km | 122 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
1L. Koopmans(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
28J. Hubner
44Iván Márquez
12Ivo Pinto
20É. Michut
23P. Brittijn
18D. Limnios
70L. Duijvestijn
52M. Ihattaren
9K. Sierhuis
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
6D. Bakker
4G. Offerhaus
14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo
2J. Hardeveld
23C. Hatenboer
8T. Owusu
11T. Noslin
27P. Brouwer
37Sem van Duijn
19N. Þórisson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fortuna Sittard
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Telstar
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fortuna Sittard-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Telstar+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Fortuna Sittard · Home
1.75points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-3
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
Telstar · Away
0.83points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-6
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.42
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fortuna Sittard | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | W 3–2 AW 3–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Ajax | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H | L 2–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Heracles | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Groningen | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 HL 2–5 A | W 2–0 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 AW 4–2 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 4–3 H | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A |
| PEC Zwolle | L 0–1 A | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Heerenveen | W 2–0 H | L 2–3 H |
| FC Volendam | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Twente | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Utrecht | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Feyenoord | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| NAC Breda | L 1–2 A | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 29 of 72 · 1.21 per game | 21 of 72 · 0.88 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Fortuna Sittard wins0 draws0 Telstar wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 14 Sep 2025Telstar1–3Fortuna Sittard
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fortuna Sittard | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.64 | |
| Match goals | 3.36 | 2.88 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 52% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 76% | 64% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 12% | 24% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Fortuna Sittard | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 3.00 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fortuna Sittard | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 4.96 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.74 | 6.08 | |
| Match total | 11.52 | 11.04 | 10.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 19/23 | 79% 19/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 15/23 | 67% 16/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 13/23 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.16 | 1.32 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.44 | 1.76 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.08 | 3.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 11/25 | 32% 8/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 9/25 | 28% 7/25 | |
| Fortuna Sittard | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.67 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 13.45 | 10.70 | 10.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.60 | 3.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 54 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.24league 3.27
Red cards0.15league 0.18
Cards 5+28%league 29%
Fouls22.0league 21.4
Penalties0.26league 0.25
Home wins52%league 45%
Fortuna Sittard4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W8 Mar 25H · Heracles1–00
- W16 Aug 24H · Almere City FC3–02
- W24 Feb 24A · Waalwijk1–00
- W10 Dec 23H · Waalwijk1–02
Telstar1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L25 Oct 25A · Sparta Rotterdam0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fortuna Sittard25 games · scored 39 · conceded 45
8
7
0-15
2
10
16-30
9
8
31-45
5
5
46-60
5
5
61-75
10
10
76-90
Telstar25 games · scored 31 · conceded 41
3
5
0-15
4
6
16-30
6
7
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
7
61-75
9
14
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 18 · conceded 20
3
5
0-15
1
5
16-30
7
2
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
6
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
