Fortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Twente were slight favourites.
Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Twente. Fortuna Sittard had 21 days of rest, Twente 20.2 and had to travel 153 km.
Away travel153 kmRest days21 · 20.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Fortuna Sittard21%
Draw21%
Twente58%
Fortuna Sittard26%
Draw25%
Twente49%
Fortuna Sittard21%
Draw22%
Twente57%
Fortuna Sittard16%
Draw19%
Twente65%
Fortuna Sittard22%
Draw21%
Twente57%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sittard)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRobin Hensgens
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.06
- Matches 34
Team strength
Fortuna Sittard
Twente
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
19
AttackIn forecast
41
19
DefenceIn forecast
49
53
Form indexContext
82
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTwente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fortuna SittardTwente
1.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.14
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.86
2.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.51
+0.80
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
86%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
10.14
ShotsContext
21.29
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.43
45%
On target shareContext
35%
5.57
Shots in the boxContext
14.43
55%
Box shareContext
69%
18%
ConversionContext
10%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.50
20.00
Shots allowedContext
10.00
6.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.57
5.29
BlocksContext
4.40
4.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.57
70%
Save rateContext
72%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
322
PassesContext
527
247
Accurate passesContext
456
77%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.77
Team ratingContext
7.05
9.14
FoulsContext
10.00
10.43
Fouls sufferedContext
8.00
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
0.86
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
2.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.81
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.20
ShotsContext
20.88
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.25
40%
On target shareContext
35%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
14.25
55%
Box shareContext
69%
17%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
18.50
Shots allowedContext
10.38
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.80
BlocksContext
3.83
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
66%
Save rateContext
66%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
330
PassesContext
505
254
Accurate passesContext
432
77%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.92
9.40
FoulsContext
9.38
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
7.88
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fortuna Sittard
LWWLW
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 53 · 9 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +3.7 vs expected
Twente
WDWWW
Rest20.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel153 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 82 · 13 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +3.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fortuna Sittard |
Twente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21Eredivisie 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 20.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 153 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
28J. Hubner
6S. van Ottele
3R. Guth
12Ivo Pinto
22S. ’t Zand
20É. Michut
23P. Brittijn
9A. Descotte
25L. Zeefuik
52M. Ihattaren
Twente
Confirmed XI
16J. Drommel(G)
29A. Adelgaard
4Ruud Nijstad
3R. Pröpper
28B. van Rooij
8D. Weidmann
6R. Zerrouki
7M. Pjaca
10Y. Taha
11D. Rots
9W. Weghorst
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fortuna Sittard
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Twente
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fortuna Sittard-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Twente+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Fortuna Sittard · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.67
Twente · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Fortuna Sittard | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | W 3–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Groningen | W 3–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Cambuur | W 3–1 H | W 4–1 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | D 2–2 A | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 10 of 12 · 2.50 per game | 10 of 12 · 2.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 Fortuna Sittard wins1 draws4 Twente wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.20
Over 2.580%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets0% · 20%
- 21 Mar 2026Fortuna Sittard1–2Twente
- 26 Sep 2025Twente3–2Fortuna Sittard
- 5 Apr 2025Twente1–1Fortuna Sittard
- 23 Nov 2024Fortuna Sittard1–2Twente
- 8 Oct 2023Fortuna Sittard0–3Twente
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fortuna Sittard | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.86 | 2.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.86 | 3.14 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 57% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 71% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 57% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Fortuna Sittard | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fortuna Sittard | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 7.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 9.00 | 3.71 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 11.28 | 10.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 100% 7/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 0.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 3.85 | 2.57 | 2.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Fortuna Sittard | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.25 | 7.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.50 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 10.75 | 12.38 | 10.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 100% 8/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 2.50 | 2.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Hensgens Netherlands · 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.91league 2.67
Red cards0.18league 0.05
Cards 5+18%league 11%
Fouls21.9league 20.8
Penalties0.06league 0.20
Home wins38%league 32%
Fortuna Sittard3 with this referee
Record0-3-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D29 Nov 25H · Heracles1–13
- D28 Sep 24A · Sparta Rotterdam1–12
- D26 Aug 23A · Excelsior2–22
Twente2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W10 Apr 26H · FC Volendam2–11
- D10 Jan 26H · PEC Zwolle1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fortuna Sittard7 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
Twente7 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
2
0-15
2
5
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 17 · conceded 20
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
3
8
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 19 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
3
6
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
