Frosinone
Attack+12%
Defense risk−6%
Our take
It was too close to call.
Sassuolo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 29). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Sassuolo. Sassuolo were without J. Idzes and F. Leysen. Frosinone had 6 days of rest, Sassuolo 5.1 and had to travel 405 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel405 kmRest days6 · 5.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Frosinone39%
Draw26%
Sassuolo35%
Frosinone40%
Draw27%
Sassuolo33%
Frosinone37%
Draw26%
Sassuolo37%
Frosinone32%
Draw25%
Sassuolo43%
Frosinone41%
Draw24%
Sassuolo36%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Frosinone)
16°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 2 km/h
- Humidity 90%
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marchetti
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 56
Team strength
Frosinone
Sassuolo
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
41
AttackIn forecast
41
25
DefenceIn forecast
32
74
Form indexContext
55
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSassuolo
Attack+22%
Defense risk−13%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
FrosinoneSassuolo
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
2.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
67%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.67
ShotsContext
16.17
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
27%
On target shareContext
40%
10.83
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
67%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
20.33
Shots allowedContext
14.83
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
5.67
BlocksContext
4.50
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
77%
Save rateContext
72%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
301
PassesContext
443
224
Accurate passesContext
389
75%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.85
15.17
FoulsContext
9.50
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.17
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
2.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
50%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
17.10
ShotsContext
14.20
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
29%
On target shareContext
39%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
62%
Box shareContext
62%
6%
ConversionContext
11%
2.71
OffsidesContext
1.75
16.70
Shots allowedContext
13.70
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.22
4.70
BlocksContext
3.50
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
79%
Save rateContext
68%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
314
PassesContext
465
239
Accurate passesContext
409
76%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.50
FoulsContext
10.10
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Frosinone
WWDWL
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km234 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +4.8 vs expected
Sassuolo
WDWLD
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel405 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 55 · 8 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Frosinone |
Sassuolo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Serie A 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 5.1Serie A 2026-2027, 11 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 405 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 234 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Frosinone
Confirmed XI
22L. Palmisani(G)
79G. Bracaglia
30I. Monterisi
2G. Cittadini
20A. Oyono
14Giacomo Calò
73P. Masini
17G. Kvernadze
10R. Schmid
7F. Ghedjemis
9A. Raimondo
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
3J. Doig
15D. Ćaleta-Car
26C. Odenthal
20I. Van der Brempt
50D. Bakola
18N. Matić
45A. Laurienté
42K. Thorstvedt
10D. Berardi
94S. Esposito
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Frosinone
Attack line −0.1% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes
- ATT D. Bîrligea Depth 6.51 Att −0.1%
- MID F. Grillitsch Depth 6.30
Sassuolo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals
Attack line −8.2% · Defence line −30.3% of weighted minutes
- DEF J. Idzes Starter 6.62 Def −12.8%
- DEF F. Leysen Starter 6.74 Def −11.3%
- MID I. Koné Starter 6.97 Att −8.2% Def −5.2%
- DEF Fali Candé Rotation 6.46 Def −1.0%
Total impact vs full squads
- Frosinone+2.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Sassuolo-1.7 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Frosinone · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Sassuolo · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Frosinone | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus | L 0–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Frosinone wins0 draws1 Sassuolo wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 9 Mar 2024Sassuolo1–0Frosinone
- 17 Sep 2023Frosinone4–2Sassuolo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Frosinone | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.33 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Frosinone | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.10 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 10% | |
| Games | 6 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Frosinone | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.33 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 13.00 | 10.66 | 9.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 3.66 | 3.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Frosinone | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 9.20 | 9.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.50 | 3.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marchetti Italy · 56 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.84league 3.30
Red cards0.21league 0.07
Cards 5+41%league 28%
Fouls24.9league 21.8
Penalties0.25league 0.12
Home wins39%league 47%
Frosinone2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L2 Dec 23A · AC Milan1–31
- L1 Oct 23A · AS Roma0–22
Sassuolo6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds3
- D21 Mar 26A · Juventus1–12
- W1 Mar 26H · Atalanta2–14
- L28 Nov 25A · Como0–21
- W4 May 24H · Inter1–01
- L20 Aug 23H · Atalanta0–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Frosinone6 games · scored 9 · conceded 7
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Sassuolo6 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Frosinone10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
