FSV Mainz 05
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FSV Mainz 05 were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. FSV Mainz 05 had 13 days of rest, RB Leipzig 14 and had to travel 325 km.
Away travel325 kmRest days13 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
FSV Mainz 0542%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig33%
FSV Mainz 0541%
Draw27%
RB Leipzig32%
FSV Mainz 0542%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig33%
FSV Mainz 0534%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig40%
FSV Mainz 0541%
Draw27%
RB Leipzig32%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mainz)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySven Jablonski
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 80
Team strength
FSV Mainz 05
RB Leipzig
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
68
AttackIn forecast
76
56
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FSV Mainz 05RB Leipzig
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.00
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.79
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
50%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
17.00
ShotsContext
14.50
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
15%
On target shareContext
21%
13.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
76%
Box shareContext
73%
3%
ConversionContext
7%
—
OffsidesContext
—
11.50
Shots allowedContext
12.00
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
2.50
BlocksContext
3.00
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
60%
Save rateContext
54%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
415
PassesContext
451
336
Accurate passesContext
384
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.00
FoulsContext
10.00
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.50
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
70%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.70
ShotsContext
12.70
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
28%
On target shareContext
32%
11.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
73%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
3.50
OffsidesContext
2.33
10.20
Shots allowedContext
14.20
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
2.10
BlocksContext
4.40
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
61%
Save rateContext
57%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
426
PassesContext
484
344
Accurate passesContext
409
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.95
11.00
FoulsContext
9.90
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FSV Mainz 05
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km645 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
RB Leipzig
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel325 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FSV Mainz 05 |
RB Leipzig |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13Bundesliga 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 325 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 645 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
27R. Zentner(G)
31D. Kohr
16S. Bell
21D. da Costa
2P. Mwene
10N. Amiri
6K. Sano
19A. Caci
14W. Bøving
9A. Nordin
44N. Weiper
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
24X. Schlager
13N. Seiwald
7A. Nusa
14C. Baumgartner
9S. Bakayoko
40Rômulo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FSV Mainz 05
Absences are shown before kick-off
RB Leipzig
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FSV Mainz 05-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- RB Leipzig+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
FSV Mainz 05 · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
RB Leipzig · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 6.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 FSV Mainz 05 wins2 draws2 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.00
Over 2.538%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 1 Mar 2025RB Leipzig1–2FSV Mainz 05
- 19 Oct 2024FSV Mainz 050–2RB Leipzig
- 30 Mar 2024RB Leipzig0–0FSV Mainz 05
- 4 Nov 2023FSV Mainz 052–0RB Leipzig
- 1 Apr 2023RB Leipzig0–3FSV Mainz 05
- 8 Oct 2022FSV Mainz 051–1RB Leipzig
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FSV Mainz 05 | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 4.00 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 4.00 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FSV Mainz 05 | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.50 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 8.50 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| FSV Mainz 05 | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.80 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 6.10 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 11.40 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.90 | 5.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 80 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.94league 4.89
Red cards0.09league 0.37
Cards 5+43%league 58%
Fouls19.9league 23.1
Penalties0.20league 0.42
Home wins43%league 42%
FSV Mainz 056 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L12 Apr 25A · 1899 Hoffenheim0–22
- D5 May 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim1–13
- D6 Oct 23A · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–21
- L21 May 23H · VfB Stuttgart1–43
- W11 Feb 23H · FC Augsburg3–11
RB Leipzig10 with this referee
Record5-2-3
Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D8 Mar 25A · SC Freiburg0–03
- W26 Oct 24H · SC Freiburg3–13
- D14 Sep 24H · Union Berlin0–02
- L27 Jan 24A · VfB Stuttgart2–54
- W9 Dec 23A · Borussia Dortmund3–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FSV Mainz 052 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
RB Leipzig2 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 14 · conceded 21
3
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
7
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
