FSV Mainz 05
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FSV Mainz 05 were slight favourites.
FSV Mainz 05 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FSV Mainz 05. FSV Mainz 05 had 105 days of rest, SC Paderborn 07 ? and had to travel 196 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel196 kmRest days105 · ?Matches / 14d0 · 0
FSV Mainz 0555%
Draw23%
SC Paderborn 0722%
FSV Mainz 0553%
Draw24%
SC Paderborn 0723%
FSV Mainz 0555%
Draw23%
SC Paderborn 0722%
FSV Mainz 0547%
Draw24%
SC Paderborn 0728%
FSV Mainz 0556%
Draw22%
SC Paderborn 0722%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mainz)
24°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 14 km/h
- Humidity 48%
Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 110
Team strength
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
68
AttackIn forecast
34
56
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Paderborn 07
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FSV Mainz 05SC Paderborn 07
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.80
ShotsContext
14.80
5.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
40%
On target shareContext
33%
9.44
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
71%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.30
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.30
Shots allowedContext
11.80
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.70
BlocksContext
2.67
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
64%
Save rateContext
80%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
353
PassesContext
410
281
Accurate passesContext
332
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.70
FoulsContext
11.60
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FSV Mainz 05
Rest105 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Paderborn 07
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel196 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FSV Mainz 05 |
SC Paderborn 07 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 105Bundesliga 2025-2026, 16 May | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 196 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
27R. Zentner(G)
31D. Kohr
3F. Gruber
21D. da Costa
6K. Sano
2P. Mwene
10N. Amiri
7J. Lee
19A. Caci
9P. Tietz
23S. Becker
SC Paderborn 07
Confirmed XI
15N. Noll(G)
22M. Hansen
25T. Scheller
21J. ter Horst
23R. Obermair
5S. Castañeda
28L. Ulrich
17L. Curda
40G. Vidović
30S. Marino
18M. Pieringer
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FSV Mainz 05
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Paderborn 07
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FSV Mainz 05+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Paderborn 07+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FSV Mainz 05 · Home
No home games yet this season.
SC Paderborn 07 · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| FSV Mainz 05 | SC Paderborn 07 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 56% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | SC Paderborn 07 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | — | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | — | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | — | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | — | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | — | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | — | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | — | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | — | |
| Failed to score | 10% | — | |
| Games | 10 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FSV Mainz 05 | SC Paderborn 07 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 12.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| FSV Mainz 05 | SC Paderborn 07 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 8.50 | 12.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 110 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 4.00
Red cards0.19league 0.00
Cards 5+33%league 0%
Fouls21.8league 27.0
Penalties0.33league 0.00
Home wins53%league 100%
FSV Mainz 059 with this referee
Record4-1-4
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- W22 Mar 26H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–12
- D28 Feb 26A · Bayer Leverkusen1–12
- L24 Aug 25H · 1.FC Köln0–12
- W10 May 25A · VfL Bochum4–10
- W25 Jan 25H · VfB Stuttgart2–04
SC Paderborn 07No previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FSV Mainz 05SC Paderborn 07FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
6
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
SC Paderborn 0710 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
