Süper Lig Gameweek 1 Fri, Aug 14 · 19:30 Rams Global Stadium, İstanbul
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Galatasaray were clear favourites.

Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Çorum FK. Galatasaray had 89.1 days of rest, Çorum FK ? and had to travel 508 km.

Away travel508 kmRest days89.1 · ?Matches / 14d0 · 0
Galatasaray68%
Draw19%
Çorum FK14%
Expected goals 2.24 – 0.90
Galatasaray69%
Draw19%
Çorum FK13%
Expected goals 2.19 – 0.82
Galatasaray68%
Draw19%
Çorum FK14%
Expected goals 2.24 – 0.90
Galatasaray60%
Draw21%
Çorum FK18%
Expected goals 1.99 – 1.01
Galatasaray66%
Draw19%
Çorum FK14%
Expected goals 2.15 – 0.88
Over 2.5 61% Both score 53% Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

RefereeBatuhan Kolak
  • Cards per match 4.8
  • Penalties per match 0.39
  • Matches 18

Team strength

GalatasarayÇorum FK
67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27
62 Current StrengthIn forecast 32
57 AttackIn forecast 31
55 DefenceIn forecast 36
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Galatasaray

Attack—
Defense risk—

Çorum FK

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GalatasarayÇorum FK
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def —
1.64 xGVia Att/Def —
1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+0.16 Goals minus xGContext —
80% Scored inContext —
20% Clean sheetsContext —
13.70 ShotsContext —
4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
32% On target shareContext —
9.56 Shots in the boxContext —
66% Box shareContext —
13% ConversionContext —
3.33 OffsidesContext —
11.50 Shots allowedContext —
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def —
2.25 BlocksContext —
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext —
65% Save rateContext —
61% PossessionIn forecast —
462 PassesContext —
394 Accurate passesContext —
85% Pass accuracyContext —
6.87 Team ratingContext —
11.20 FoulsContext —
12.40 Fouls sufferedContext —
1.60 Yellow cardsContext —
0.10 Red cardsContext —
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 0 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Galatasaray
Rest89.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Çorum FK
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel508 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Galatasaray Çorum FK
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match89.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 May—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km508 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 00 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one77.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Galatasaray Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1U. Çakır(G)
4I. Jakobs 42A. Bardakcı 6D. Sánchez 7R. Sallai
8Gabriel Sara 34L. Torreira
53B. Yılmaz 11Y. Akgün 10L. Sané
45V. Osimhen
Çorum FK Confirmed XI
4-1-4-1
1Marcos Felipe(G)
24A. Borza 6H. Smolčić 5Alexandre Penetra 11G. Sazdağı
3B. Özdemir
89A. Kyziridis 16Fredy 8M. Karlsbakk 7S. Gürler
19J. Ramírez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Galatasaray Absences are shown before kick-off
Çorum FK Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Galatasaray+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Çorum FK+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Galatasaray · Home No home games yet this season.
Çorum FK · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Referee · Batuhan Kolak 18 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.61
Red cards0.17
Cards 5+39%
Fouls26.2
Penalties0.39
Home wins39%
Galatasaray4 with this referee
Record4-0-0 Cards · opp.0.8 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • W18 Apr 26A · Genclerbirligi2–12
  • W14 Mar 26H · Istanbul Basaksehir3–00
  • W13 Sep 25A · Eyüpspor2–01
  • W24 May 25A · Goztepe2–00
Çorum FK

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Galatasaray
No complete event data.
Çorum FK
No complete event data.
Galatasaray10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
3 1 0-15
2 3 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 4 46-60
4 6 61-75
4 1 76-90
Çorum FK
No complete event data.

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.