Galatasaray
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Galatasaray67.2%fair odds 1.49
Draw19.5%fair odds 5.12
Çorum FK13.2%fair odds 7.55
Expected goals2.24 – 0.90total 3.13
Likeliest score2–010.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Çorum FK
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Galatasaray ↓ · Çorum FK → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Galatasaray goals, columns Çorum FK goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.9%9.18
- 2–19.8%10.23
- 1–09.3%10.78
- 1–19.2%10.86
- 3–08.1%12.32
- 3–17.3%13.73
- 0–04.8%20.75
- 4–04.5%22.04
- 2–24.4%22.79
- 4–14.1%24.55
Winning margin
24.0%
Galatasaray by 3+
fair 4.16
20.3%
Galatasaray by 2
fair 4.93
22.9%
Galatasaray by 1
fair 4.36
19.5%
Draw
fair 5.12
8.9%
Çorum FK by 1
fair 11.20
3.3%
Çorum FK by 2
fair 30.61
1.1%
Çorum FK by 3+
fair 94.71
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
18%4
21%5+
Galatasaray goals
11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+
Çorum FK goals
41%0
37%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 67.2% | 66.0% | +1.3 pp |
| Draw | 19.5% | 20.3% | -0.8 pp |
| Çorum FK win | 13.2% | 13.7% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.6% | 58.3% | +2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.4% | 52.2% | +1.2 pp |
| Expected goals Galatasaray | 2.24 | 2.15 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals Çorum FK | 0.90 | 0.88 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Galatasaray win67.2%1.49
- Draw19.5%5.12
- Çorum FK win13.2%7.55
- Double chance Galatasaray or draw86.8%1.15
- Double chance Galatasaray or Çorum FK80.5%1.24
- Double chance Çorum FK or draw32.8%3.05
- Draw no bet Galatasaray83.5%1.20
- Draw no bet Çorum FK16.5%6.07
Goals
- Over 0.595.2%1.05
- Over 1.582.5%1.21
- Over 2.560.6%1.65
- Over 3.538.3%2.61
- Over 4.520.8%4.81
- Under 1.517.5%5.70
- Under 2.539.4%2.54
- Under 3.561.7%1.62
Both teams to score
- Yes53.4%1.87
- No46.6%2.15
- Yes and over 2.544.2%2.26
- Galatasaray win and yes31.3%3.20
- Draw and yes14.7%6.80
- Çorum FK win and yes7.4%13.55
Team goals
- Galatasaray over 0.589.3%1.12
- Galatasaray over 1.565.4%1.53
- Galatasaray over 2.538.7%2.58
- Çorum FK over 0.559.2%1.69
- Çorum FK over 1.522.7%4.41
- Çorum FK over 2.56.2%16.01
- Galatasaray clean sheet40.8%2.45
- Çorum FK clean sheet10.7%9.36
- Galatasaray win to nil35.9%2.78
- Çorum FK win to nil5.9%17.04
Handicap
- Galatasaray −1.544.3%2.26
- Galatasaray −2.524.0%4.16
- Çorum FK +1.555.7%1.80
- Çorum FK +2.576.0%1.32
- Çorum FK −1.54.3%23.14
- Galatasaray +1.595.7%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2026-2027
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.