Galatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Galatasaray. Galatasaray had 5.1 days of rest, Eyüpspor 5.2 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days5.1 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Galatasaray83%
Draw12%
Eyüpspor5%
Galatasaray79%
Draw14%
Eyüpspor7%
Galatasaray83%
Draw11%
Eyüpspor5%
Galatasaray78%
Draw15%
Eyüpspor8%
Galatasaray82%
Draw12%
Eyüpspor6%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCagdas Altay
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.09
- Matches 11
Team strength
Galatasaray
Eyüpspor
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
57
AttackIn forecast
9
55
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GalatasarayEyüpspor
2.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.81
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
2.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
90%
Scored inContext
52%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
16.67
ShotsContext
10.90
5.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
34%
On target shareContext
32%
11.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.95
70%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
1.87
OffsidesContext
2.62
9.48
Shots allowedContext
14.05
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.95
2.83
BlocksContext
4.32
2.68
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.95
80%
Save rateContext
74%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
508
PassesContext
379
446
Accurate passesContext
308
88%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.14
FoulsContext
11.38
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.48
1.81
Yellow cardsContext
2.19
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.84
+0.77
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.00
ShotsContext
10.30
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
31%
On target shareContext
34%
10.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
74%
Box shareContext
67%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.30
10.80
Shots allowedContext
15.50
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
3.22
BlocksContext
4.78
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
74%
Save rateContext
72%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
531
PassesContext
371
469
Accurate passesContext
298
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.80
FoulsContext
12.40
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Galatasaray
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,940 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Eyüpspor
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Galatasaray |
Eyüpspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 5.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,940 km | 962 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
17E. Elmalı
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
93S. Boey
77N. Lang
99M. Lemina
20İ. Gündoğan
11Y. Akgün
9M. Icardi
45V. Osimhen
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
24J. Yılmaz(G)
77C. Meraş
5B. Ozyurt
68J. Onguéné
17Talha Ülvan
20M. Łęgowski
55B. Gezek
23L. Pintor
8E. Akbaba
10Á. Torres
19U. Bozok
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Galatasaray
Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eyüpspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Galatasaray-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Eyüpspor+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Galatasaray · Home
2.45points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-3-0
- Scored
- 2.45
- Conceded
- 0.82
Eyüpspor · Away
0.80points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-6
- Scored
- 0.70
- Conceded
- 1.30
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Galatasaray | Eyüpspor |
|---|---|---|
| Rizespor | W 3–0 AW 3–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 HW 4–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–1 AW 3–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 4–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Samsunspor | W 3–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 3–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Goztepe | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 1–0 A | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Konyaspor | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 AL 1–4 H |
| Points | 49 of 60 · 2.45 per game | 18 of 60 · 0.90 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Galatasaray wins1 draws0 Eyüpspor wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 13 Sep 2025Eyüpspor0–2Galatasaray
- 27 Apr 2025Eyüpspor1–5Galatasaray
- 1 Dec 2024Galatasaray2–2Eyüpspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Galatasaray | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.38 | 0.81 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 3.05 | 2.24 | 3.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 43% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 48% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 48% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Galatasaray | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.70 | 3.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Galatasaray | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 5.17 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.39 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 9/20 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 9/20 | 39% 7/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 5/20 | 28% 5/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.24 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.19 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.09 | 4.24 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 9/21 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 8/21 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Galatasaray | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 3.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 8.51 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.90 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cagdas Altay Türkiye · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.36league 4.41
Red cards0.09league 0.23
Cards 5+9%league 46%
Fouls24.5league 25.9
Penalties0.09league 0.26
Home wins36%league 36%
Galatasaray2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L9 Nov 25A · Kocaelispor0–11
- W27 Apr 25A · Eyüpspor5–12
Eyüpspor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L27 Apr 25H · Galatasaray1–52
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Galatasaray21 games · scored 50 · conceded 14
8
2
0-15
9
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
7
2
46-60
11
3
61-75
11
4
76-90
Eyüpspor21 games · scored 17 · conceded 30
3
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
11
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 22 · conceded 9
6
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
6
1
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
