Galatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Galatasaray
1st · 42 pts · 17 played
WDWWW
1–1Full time
Gazişehir Gaziantep
9th · 23 pts · 17 played
WLDLL
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 21). Galatasaray had 27 days of rest, Gazişehir Gaziantep 26.1 and had to travel 850 km.
Away travel850 kmRest days27 · 26.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Galatasaray78%
Draw14%
Gazişehir Gaziantep8%
Galatasaray76%
Draw16%
Gazişehir Gaziantep8%
Galatasaray78%
Draw15%
Gazişehir Gaziantep8%
Galatasaray71%
Draw18%
Gazişehir Gaziantep11%
Galatasaray76%
Draw15%
Gazişehir Gaziantep8%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Cakir
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 13
Team strength
GalatasarayGazişehir Gaziantep
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
57
AttackIn forecast
15
55
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GalatasarayGazişehir Gaziantep
2.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.41
0.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.76
2.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
88%
Scored inContext
71%
41%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
16.59
ShotsContext
13.76
5.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.41
36%
On target shareContext
32%
11.41
Shots in the boxContext
8.12
66%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
1.93
OffsidesContext
1.91
9.29
Shots allowedContext
13.88
3.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.12
2.71
BlocksContext
3.35
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.35
77%
Save rateContext
66%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
489
PassesContext
396
427
Accurate passesContext
331
87%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.82
FoulsContext
12.94
9.88
Fouls sufferedContext
16.24
1.76
Yellow cardsContext
3.06
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.60
ShotsContext
13.20
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
31%
On target shareContext
37%
10.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
65%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
10.60
Shots allowedContext
14.50
3.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
3.13
BlocksContext
3.60
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
69%
Save rateContext
68%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
486
PassesContext
401
422
Accurate passesContext
338
87%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.00
FoulsContext
12.60
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
15.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Galatasaray
Rest27 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest26.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel850 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Galatasaray |
Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 27Süper Lig 2025-2026, 21 Dec | 26.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 850 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
17E. Elmalı
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
20İ. Gündoğan
99M. Lemina
53B. Yılmaz
11Y. Akgün
10L. Sané
9M. Icardi
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
20Z. Görgen(G)
5N. Mujakić
4A. Kızıldağ
30N. Sangaré
32Y. Kabadayı
61O. Özçiçek
6M. Kabasakal
2Luis Pérez
44A. Maxim
70D. Drăguş
9M. Bayo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Galatasaray
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Galatasaray+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Gazişehir Gaziantep+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Galatasaray · Home
2.56points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-0
- Scored
- 2.44
- Conceded
- 0.89
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Away
1.50points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.63
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Galatasaray | Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa | W 3–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 4–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Samsunspor | W 3–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 A | L 0–4 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 3–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Trabzonspor | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Goztepe | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 2–1 A | L 1–5 A |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Konyaspor | W 3–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Rizespor | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 39 of 48 · 2.44 per game | 23 of 48 · 1.44 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
5 Galatasaray wins0 draws0 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins
Goals per game2.40 – 0.40
Over 2.580%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets60% · 0%
- 8 Aug 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep0–3Galatasaray
- 3 Feb 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep0–1Galatasaray
- 17 Sep 2024Galatasaray3–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 29 Jan 2024Galatasaray2–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 2 Sep 2023Gazişehir Gaziantep0–3Galatasaray
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Galatasaray | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.29 | 1.41 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.71 | 1.76 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.18 | 3.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 71% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 41% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 53% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 41% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 12% | 29% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Galatasaray | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.20 | 3.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Galatasaray | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.88 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.44 | 10.00 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 7/16 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 7/16 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 4/16 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 3.24 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.24 | 3.41 | |
| Match total | 4.12 | 6.65 | 4.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 41% 7/17 | 88% 15/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 6/17 | 82% 14/17 | |
| Galatasaray | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.89 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 6.10 | 4.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Cakir Türkiye · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.15league 4.44
Red cards0.23league 0.25
Cards 5+31%league 46%
Fouls25.1league 25.7
Penalties0.38league 0.26
Home wins46%league 37%
Galatasaray1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W26 Oct 25H · Goztepe3–11
Gazişehir Gaziantep2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D8 Nov 25H · Rizespor2–22
- W5 Oct 25A · Fatih Karagümrük2–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Galatasaray17 games · scored 39 · conceded 12
6
2
0-15
7
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
8
2
61-75
9
4
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep17 games · scored 24 · conceded 30
4
5
0-15
3
7
16-30
6
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
7
5
61-75
3
8
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
3
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
