Galatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Galatasaray
1st · 61 pts · 25 played
WWLWW
3–0Full time
Istanbul Basaksehir
5th · 42 pts · 25 played
WLWWW
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 37). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Istanbul Basaksehir. Galatasaray had 7 days of rest, Istanbul Basaksehir 7.2 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days7 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Galatasaray64%
Draw19%
Istanbul Basaksehir16%
Galatasaray66%
Draw20%
Istanbul Basaksehir13%
Galatasaray65%
Draw19%
Istanbul Basaksehir16%
Galatasaray56%
Draw22%
Istanbul Basaksehir22%
Galatasaray63%
Draw20%
Istanbul Basaksehir17%
Over 2.5 68%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeBatuhan Kolak
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 12
Team strength
GalatasarayIstanbul Basaksehir
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
57
AttackIn forecast
32
55
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisIstanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GalatasarayIstanbul Basaksehir
2.36
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.76
0.72
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.08
1.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
88%
Scored inContext
88%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
16.04
ShotsContext
12.72
5.64
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.52
35%
On target shareContext
36%
11.44
Shots in the boxContext
8.78
70%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
2.05
OffsidesContext
1.72
9.84
Shots allowedContext
12.48
3.46
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.28
2.95
BlocksContext
3.96
2.91
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.24
81%
Save rateContext
76%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
501
PassesContext
429
439
Accurate passesContext
363
88%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.20
FoulsContext
12.84
9.96
Fouls sufferedContext
13.12
1.96
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.61
Goals minus xGContext
+0.55
80%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.60
ShotsContext
13.60
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
40%
On target shareContext
43%
10.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
74%
Box shareContext
70%
16%
ConversionContext
18%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
12.90
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.70
BlocksContext
4.22
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
81%
Save rateContext
76%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
490
PassesContext
440
424
Accurate passesContext
373
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.98
11.70
FoulsContext
14.10
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Galatasaray
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Galatasaray |
Istanbul Basaksehir |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 7 Mar | 7.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 7 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
17E. Elmalı
90W. Singo
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
8Gabriel Sara
34L. Torreira
77N. Lang
11Y. Akgün
53B. Yılmaz
45V. Osimhen
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
36F. Ebosele
3J. Opoku
5Léo Duarte
42Ö. Şahiner
20U. Güneş
8O. Kemen
77I. Brnić
14E. Shomurodov
7Y. Sarı
9D. Selke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Galatasaray
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Istanbul Basaksehir
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Galatasaray-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Istanbul Basaksehir+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Galatasaray · Home
2.54points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-3-0
- Scored
- 2.69
- Conceded
- 0.85
Istanbul Basaksehir · Away
1.83points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-4
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Galatasaray | Istanbul Basaksehir |
|---|---|---|
| Besiktas | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Konyaspor | L 0–2 AW 3–1 H | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 5–1 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Rizespor | W 3–0 AW 3–1 H | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 HW 4–0 A | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–1 AW 3–0 H | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A | W 5–1 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 4–1 A | W 4–0 A |
| Samsunspor | W 3–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 3–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Trabzonspor | D 0–0 H | L 3–4 H |
| Goztepe | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 58 of 72 · 2.42 per game | 42 of 72 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
5 Galatasaray wins0 draws0 Istanbul Basaksehir wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.60
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 18 Oct 2025Istanbul Basaksehir1–2Galatasaray
- 30 May 2025Galatasaray2–0Istanbul Basaksehir
- 12 Jan 2025Istanbul Basaksehir1–2Galatasaray
- 10 Feb 2024Galatasaray2–0Istanbul Basaksehir
- 23 Sep 2023Istanbul Basaksehir1–2Galatasaray
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Galatasaray | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.36 | 1.76 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.72 | 1.08 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 2.84 | 3.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 60% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 64% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 12% | 12% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Galatasaray | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.70 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Galatasaray | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.26 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.61 | 5.29 | |
| Match total | 8.87 | 10.04 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 11/23 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 11/23 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 7/23 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.08 | 2.32 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.36 | 2.52 | |
| Match total | 4.44 | 4.84 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 12/25 | 72% 18/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 11/25 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Galatasaray | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.23 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 3.80 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Batuhan Kolak 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.42league 4.45
Red cards0.17league 0.21
Cards 5+33%league 45%
Fouls25.8league 26.0
Penalties0.33league 0.27
Home wins33%league 37%
Galatasaray2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W13 Sep 25A · Eyüpspor2–01
- W24 May 25A · Goztepe2–00
Istanbul Basaksehir2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W24 Jan 26A · Kayserispor3–00
- W31 Oct 25H · Kocaelispor1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Galatasaray25 games · scored 59 · conceded 18
9
2
0-15
9
2
16-30
7
1
31-45
9
3
46-60
12
5
61-75
13
5
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir25 games · scored 44 · conceded 27
4
0-15
7
2
16-30
7
8
31-45
7
3
46-60
9
7
61-75
10
7
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 24 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
5
3
61-75
6
2
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 24 · conceded 10
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
6
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
