Süper Lig Gameweek 26 Sat, Mar 14 · 17:00 Rams Global Stadium, İstanbul
Galatasaray 1st · 61 pts · 25 played
3–0Full time
Istanbul Basaksehir 5th · 42 pts · 25 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Galatasaray64.5%fair odds 1.55
Draw19.3%fair odds 5.18
Istanbul Basaksehir16.2%fair odds 6.16
Expected goals2.37 – 1.13total 3.49
Likeliest score2–19.6%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Galatasaray

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Istanbul Basaksehir

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Galatasaray ↓ · Istanbul Basaksehir →0123456+
03.53.01.90.70.20.00.0
16.88.54.61.70.50.10.0
28.59.65.42.00.60.10.0
36.77.64.31.60.50.10.0
44.04.52.50.90.30.10.0
51.92.11.20.40.10.00.0
6+1.11.20.70.30.10.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Galatasaray goals, columns Istanbul Basaksehir goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 2–19.6%10.42
  • 1–18.5%11.71
  • 2–08.5%11.74
  • 3–17.6%13.22
  • 1–06.8%14.76
  • 3–06.7%14.88
  • 2–25.4%18.51
  • 1–24.6%21.90
  • 4–14.5%22.35
  • 3–24.3%23.48

Winning margin

23.6% Galatasaray by 3+ fair 4.23
19.1% Galatasaray by 2 fair 5.23
21.7% Galatasaray by 1 fair 4.61
19.3% Draw fair 5.18
10.1% Istanbul Basaksehir by 1 fair 9.89
4.3% Istanbul Basaksehir by 2 fair 23.10
1.8% Istanbul Basaksehir by 3+ fair 56.11

Goal distribution

Total goals

3%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
27%5+

Galatasaray goals

9%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
21%4+

Istanbul Basaksehir goals

32%0
37%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Galatasaray win 64.5% 63.4% +1.1 pp
Draw 19.3% 20.1% -0.8 pp
Istanbul Basaksehir win 16.2% 16.5% -0.3 pp
Over 2.5 67.8% 64.7% +3.1 pp
Both teams score 61.7% 59.5% +2.1 pp
Expected goals Galatasaray 2.37 2.25 +0.11
Expected goals Istanbul Basaksehir 1.13 1.08 +0.05

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Galatasaray win64.5%1.55
  • Draw19.3%5.18
  • Istanbul Basaksehir win16.2%6.16
  • Double chance Galatasaray or draw83.8%1.19
  • Double chance Galatasaray or Istanbul Basaksehir80.7%1.24
  • Double chance Istanbul Basaksehir or draw35.5%2.81
  • Draw no bet Galatasaray79.9%1.25
  • Draw no bet Istanbul Basaksehir20.1%4.97

Goals

  • Over 0.596.5%1.04
  • Over 1.586.8%1.15
  • Over 2.567.8%1.48
  • Over 3.546.2%2.17
  • Over 4.527.3%3.66
  • Under 1.513.2%7.55
  • Under 2.532.2%3.10
  • Under 3.553.8%1.86

Both teams to score

  • Yes61.7%1.62
  • No38.3%2.61
  • Yes and over 2.553.1%1.88
  • Galatasaray win and yes35.5%2.82
  • Draw and yes15.8%6.31
  • Istanbul Basaksehir win and yes10.3%9.70

Team goals

  • Galatasaray over 0.590.6%1.10
  • Galatasaray over 1.568.4%1.46
  • Galatasaray over 2.542.1%2.37
  • Istanbul Basaksehir over 0.567.6%1.48
  • Istanbul Basaksehir over 1.531.0%3.22
  • Istanbul Basaksehir over 2.510.5%9.54
  • Galatasaray clean sheet32.4%3.08
  • Istanbul Basaksehir clean sheet9.4%10.65
  • Galatasaray win to nil29.0%3.45
  • Istanbul Basaksehir win to nil5.9%16.91

Handicap

  • Galatasaray −1.542.8%2.34
  • Galatasaray −2.523.6%4.23
  • Istanbul Basaksehir +1.557.2%1.75
  • Istanbul Basaksehir +2.576.4%1.31
  • Istanbul Basaksehir −1.56.1%16.36
  • Galatasaray +1.593.9%1.07

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored228 Favourite won49.6% Avg chance given to result40.4% 1X2 Brier0.593 Over 2.5 called right53.5% BTTS called right53.9%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3338.1%33.3%
40–50%9344.1%38.7%
50–60%5854.9%55.2%
60–70%2565.0%72.0%
70–80%1576.0%80.0%
80%+482.1%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 184 of 228 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.59300.5811
Avg chance given to result40.5%41.6%
Favourite won51.6%52.7%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 184 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 228 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.