Galatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 38). Absences weigh more on Galatasaray. Galatasaray had 6.1 days of rest, Trabzonspor 7 and had to travel 904 km.
Away travel904 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Galatasaray67%
Draw19%
Trabzonspor13%
Galatasaray67%
Draw20%
Trabzonspor13%
Galatasaray69%
Draw19%
Trabzonspor12%
Galatasaray60%
Draw22%
Trabzonspor18%
Galatasaray66%
Draw20%
Trabzonspor13%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 8
Team strength
Galatasaray
Trabzonspor
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
57
AttackIn forecast
54
55
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTrabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GalatasarayTrabzonspor
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
2.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
100%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
16.70
ShotsContext
14.00
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
38%
On target shareContext
36%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
65%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.22
9.00
Shots allowedContext
13.20
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.50
BlocksContext
4.22
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.14
88%
Save rateContext
91%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
493
PassesContext
398
431
Accurate passesContext
336
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.13
Team ratingContext
7.04
11.70
FoulsContext
12.20
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.90
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
2.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
100%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.40
ShotsContext
14.00
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
42%
On target shareContext
36%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
62%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.22
10.70
Shots allowedContext
13.20
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.33
BlocksContext
4.22
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.14
82%
Save rateContext
91%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
453
PassesContext
398
387
Accurate passesContext
336
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.00
Team ratingContext
7.04
11.80
FoulsContext
12.20
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
14.90
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Galatasaray
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Trabzonspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel904 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Galatasaray |
Trabzonspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 904 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
17E. Elmalı
42A. Bardakcı
99M. Lemina
7R. Sallai
8Gabriel Sara
34L. Torreira
53B. Yılmaz
11Y. Akgün
10L. Sané
45V. Osimhen
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
19M. Eskihellaç
44A. Batagov
15S. Savić
20Wagner Pina
26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
42Christ Inao Oulaï
10E. Muçi
99F. da Silva
22O. Zubkov
30E. Onuachu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Galatasaray
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Trabzonspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Galatasaray-1.2 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Trabzonspor+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Galatasaray · Home
2.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-0
- Scored
- 2.60
- Conceded
- 0.80
Trabzonspor · Away
2.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Galatasaray | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| Eyüpspor | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Rizespor | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–0 H | W 4–3 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 15 of 15 · 3.00 per game | 13 of 15 · 2.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
4 Galatasaray wins0 draws0 Trabzonspor wins
Goals per game3.25 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 10 May 2025Trabzonspor0–2Galatasaray
- 16 Dec 2024Galatasaray4–3Trabzonspor
- 21 Jan 2024Trabzonspor1–5Galatasaray
- 19 Aug 2023Galatasaray2–0Trabzonspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Galatasaray | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.40 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 30% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Galatasaray | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.40 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 30% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Galatasaray | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 9.26 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Galatasaray | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 9.26 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.13league 4.70
Red cards0.13league 0.28
Cards 5+25%league 54%
Fouls26.9league 26.3
Penalties0.50league 0.28
Home wins38%league 38%
GalatasarayNo previous matches with this referee.
Trabzonspor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 Aug 25A · Kasimpasa1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Galatasaray10 games · scored 25 · conceded 5
2
2
0-15
5
16-30
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
7
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 17 · conceded 7
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 20 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
5
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
6
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 17 · conceded 7
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
