Gazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Gazişehir Gaziantep
12th · 37 pts · 33 played
LWLLL
1–2Full time
Istanbul Basaksehir
6th · 54 pts · 33 played
WDWLW
Our take
Istanbul Basaksehir were slight favourites.
Istanbul Basaksehir were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Istanbul Basaksehir. Gazişehir Gaziantep had 7 days of rest, Istanbul Basaksehir 7 and had to travel 850 km.
Away travel850 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Gazişehir Gaziantep23%
Draw23%
Istanbul Basaksehir54%
Gazişehir Gaziantep29%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir45%
Gazişehir Gaziantep23%
Draw23%
Istanbul Basaksehir54%
Gazişehir Gaziantep17%
Draw21%
Istanbul Basaksehir62%
Gazişehir Gaziantep23%
Draw24%
Istanbul Basaksehir54%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gaziantep)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOmer Faruk Turtay
- Cards per match 2.8
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 4
Team strength
Gazişehir GaziantepIstanbul Basaksehir
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
15
AttackIn forecast
32
18
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisIstanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Gazişehir GaziantepIstanbul Basaksehir
1.27
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.03
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
73%
Scored inContext
82%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
39%
12.85
ShotsContext
13.24
4.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.64
34%
On target shareContext
35%
7.88
Shots in the boxContext
9.37
60%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
1.76
OffsidesContext
1.83
13.73
Shots allowedContext
12.27
5.09
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.06
3.52
BlocksContext
3.87
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.06
66%
Save rateContext
75%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
376
PassesContext
425
310
Accurate passesContext
359
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.94
12.79
FoulsContext
12.42
15.97
Fouls sufferedContext
12.91
2.79
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
12.50
ShotsContext
13.70
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
36%
On target shareContext
35%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
10.75
61%
Box shareContext
73%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.14
14.20
Shots allowedContext
12.70
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.60
BlocksContext
4.11
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
72%
Save rateContext
76%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
363
PassesContext
406
297
Accurate passesContext
337
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.02
12.30
FoulsContext
11.10
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,826 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel850 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gazişehir Gaziantep |
Istanbul Basaksehir |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 May | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 850 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,826 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 91.1 | 92 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
71M. Bozan(G)
5N. Mujakić
14L. Abena
30N. Sangaré
77K. Rodrigues
44A. Maxim
8V. Gidado
18D. Sorescu
11C. Lungoyi
10K. Kozłowski
9M. Bayo
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
88K. Karataş
3J. Opoku
27O. Ba
42Ö. Şahiner
8O. Kemen
13Miguel Crespo
25A. Harit
14E. Shomurodov
11A. Fayzullaev
9D. Selke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gazişehir Gaziantep
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Istanbul Basaksehir
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gazişehir Gaziantep-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Istanbul Basaksehir+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Home
1.25points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-6
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.56
Istanbul Basaksehir · Away
1.50points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-6
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 1.06
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Istanbul Basaksehir |
|---|---|---|
| Goztepe | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Besiktas | L 0–2 HD 2–2 A | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Eyüpspor | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Kayserispor | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Rizespor | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 1–4 AL 0–4 H | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 4–1 AW 3–2 H | D 0–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–1 HW 3–2 A | W 4–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Galatasaray | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H |
| Points | 37 of 96 · 1.16 per game | 51 of 96 · 1.59 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins0 draws4 Istanbul Basaksehir wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 22 Dec 2025Istanbul Basaksehir5–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 20 Apr 2025Istanbul Basaksehir2–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 23 Nov 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep3–0Istanbul Basaksehir
- 24 Feb 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep0–2Istanbul Basaksehir
- 7 Oct 2023Istanbul Basaksehir2–0Gazişehir Gaziantep
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.27 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.03 | |
| Match goals | 2.97 | 2.73 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 61% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 55% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 39% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 18% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.40 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.09 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.19 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 10.28 | 9.69 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 19/32 | 56% 18/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 15/32 | 50% 16/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 14/32 | 47% 15/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.94 | 2.27 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.82 | 2.24 | |
| Match total | 5.76 | 4.51 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 85% 28/33 | 67% 22/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 23/33 | 45% 15/33 | |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.20 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 8.90 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.50 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Omer Faruk Turtay Türkiye · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.75league 4.42
Red cards0.00league 0.21
Cards 5+0%league 44%
Fouls24.5league 26.0
Penalties0.50league 0.30
Home wins50%league 42%
Gazişehir GaziantepNo previous matches with this referee.
Istanbul BasaksehirNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gazişehir Gaziantep33 games · scored 42 · conceded 56
4
8
0-15
7
11
16-30
9
5
31-45
5
4
46-60
11
9
61-75
6
19
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir33 games · scored 56 · conceded 34
7
0-15
8
3
16-30
11
8
31-45
7
5
46-60
9
10
61-75
14
8
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
