Süper Lig Gameweek 34 Sat, May 16 · 18:00 Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep
Gazişehir Gaziantep 12th · 37 pts · 33 played
1–2Full time
Istanbul Basaksehir 6th · 54 pts · 33 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Gazişehir Gaziantep22.6%fair odds 4.43
Draw23.3%fair odds 4.30
Istanbul Basaksehir54.2%fair odds 1.85
Expected goals1.18 – 1.92total 3.09
Likeliest score1–110.8%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Gazişehir Gaziantep

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Istanbul Basaksehir

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Gazişehir Gaziantep ↓ · Istanbul Basaksehir →0123456+
05.18.18.35.32.61.00.4
14.810.89.86.33.01.20.5
23.16.05.83.71.80.70.3
31.22.42.31.40.70.30.1
40.40.70.70.40.20.10.0
50.10.20.20.10.00.00.0
6+0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Gazişehir Gaziantep goals, columns Istanbul Basaksehir goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–110.8%9.29
  • 1–29.8%10.20
  • 0–28.3%11.99
  • 0–18.1%12.27
  • 1–36.3%15.94
  • 2–16.0%16.65
  • 2–25.8%17.35
  • 0–35.3%18.75
  • 0–05.1%19.73
  • 1–04.8%20.91

Winning margin

2.8% Gazişehir Gaziantep by 3+ fair 35.68
6.3% Gazişehir Gaziantep by 2 fair 15.98
13.5% Gazişehir Gaziantep by 1 fair 7.39
23.3% Draw fair 4.30
22.4% Istanbul Basaksehir by 1 fair 4.46
16.7% Istanbul Basaksehir by 2 fair 6.00
15.1% Istanbul Basaksehir by 3+ fair 6.64

Goal distribution

Total goals

5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+

Gazişehir Gaziantep goals

31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+

Istanbul Basaksehir goals

15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Gazişehir Gaziantep win 22.6% 22.9% -0.3 pp
Draw 23.3% 23.6% -0.3 pp
Istanbul Basaksehir win 54.2% 53.5% +0.6 pp
Over 2.5 59.8% 58.7% +1.0 pp
Both teams score 59.5% 58.9% +0.6 pp
Expected goals Gazişehir Gaziantep 1.18 1.17 +0.01
Expected goals Istanbul Basaksehir 1.92 1.88 +0.04

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Gazişehir Gaziantep win22.6%4.43
  • Draw23.3%4.30
  • Istanbul Basaksehir win54.2%1.85
  • Double chance Gazişehir Gaziantep or draw45.8%2.18
  • Double chance Gazişehir Gaziantep or Istanbul Basaksehir76.7%1.30
  • Double chance Istanbul Basaksehir or draw77.4%1.29
  • Draw no bet Gazişehir Gaziantep29.4%3.40
  • Draw no bet Istanbul Basaksehir70.6%1.42

Goals

  • Over 0.594.9%1.05
  • Over 1.582.0%1.22
  • Over 2.559.8%1.67
  • Over 3.537.4%2.67
  • Over 4.520.1%4.98
  • Under 1.518.0%5.56
  • Under 2.540.2%2.49
  • Under 3.562.6%1.60

Both teams to score

  • Yes59.5%1.68
  • No40.5%2.47
  • Yes and over 2.548.8%2.05
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep win and yes13.0%7.70
  • Draw and yes18.2%5.50
  • Istanbul Basaksehir win and yes28.4%3.53

Team goals

  • Gazişehir Gaziantep over 0.569.1%1.45
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep over 1.532.9%3.04
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep over 2.511.5%8.67
  • Istanbul Basaksehir over 0.585.3%1.17
  • Istanbul Basaksehir over 1.557.2%1.75
  • Istanbul Basaksehir over 2.530.1%3.32
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep clean sheet14.7%6.81
  • Istanbul Basaksehir clean sheet30.9%3.24
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep win to nil9.6%10.41
  • Istanbul Basaksehir win to nil25.8%3.88

Handicap

  • Gazişehir Gaziantep −1.59.1%11.04
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep −2.52.8%35.68
  • Istanbul Basaksehir +1.590.9%1.10
  • Istanbul Basaksehir +2.597.2%1.03
  • Istanbul Basaksehir −1.531.7%3.15
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep +1.568.3%1.46

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored299 Favourite won51.2% Avg chance given to result40.6% 1X2 Brier0.588 Over 2.5 called right55.2% BTTS called right52.2%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%4738.1%34.0%
40–50%12444.4%43.5%
50–60%7355.0%57.5%
60–70%3365.2%72.7%
70–80%1775.4%70.6%
80%+581.8%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 239 of 299 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.59560.5829
Avg chance given to result40.2%41.3%
Favourite won51.5%52.3%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 237 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 299 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.