Gazişehir Gaziantep vs Kasimpasa – 9 Feb 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 21 Mon, Feb 9 · 17:00 Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep

Gazişehir Gaziantep 9th · 25 pts · 20 played LLDDL

2–1Full time

Kasimpasa 16th · 16 pts · 20 played DLDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Gazişehir Gaziantep were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Kasimpasa. Gazişehir Gaziantep had 8.1 days of rest, Kasimpasa 10 and had to travel 850 km.

Away travel850 kmRest days8.1 · 10Matches / 14d1 · 1

Gazişehir Gaziantep44%

Draw27%

Kasimpasa29%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.13

Gazişehir Gaziantep47%

Draw26%

Kasimpasa27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.13

Gazişehir Gaziantep44%

Draw27%

Kasimpasa28%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.12

Gazişehir Gaziantep37%

Draw28%

Kasimpasa35%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.27

Gazişehir Gaziantep44%

Draw27%

Kasimpasa29%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.14

Over 2.5 48% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Gaziantep)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeMehmet Turkmen

Cards per match 2.8
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 12

Team strength

Gazişehir Gaziantep

Kasimpasa

20 L90 StrengthIn forecast 17

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 23

15 AttackIn forecast 21

18 DefenceIn forecast 32

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Gazişehir Gaziantep

Attack—

Defense risk—

Kasimpasa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Gazişehir Gaziantep

Kasimpasa

1.35 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.75

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.35

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 0.78

1.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

75% Scored inContext 55%

20% Clean sheetsContext 25%

13.65 ShotsContext 10.00

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.94

32% On target shareContext 25%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 6.16

59% Box shareContext 59%

10% ConversionContext 8%

1.71 OffsidesContext 2.06

13.80 Shots allowedContext 11.70

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.95

3.40 BlocksContext 3.21

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.94

65% Save rateContext 71%

52% PossessionIn forecast 45%

387 PassesContext 335

321 Accurate passesContext 262

83% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.74

13.00 FoulsContext 14.80

16.15 Fouls sufferedContext 12.95

3.05 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 0.66

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

80% Scored inContext 40%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.40 ShotsContext 8.50

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.13

32% On target shareContext 29%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.33

64% Box shareContext 58%

10% ConversionContext 7%

1.43 OffsidesContext 2.38

14.80 Shots allowedContext 11.60

5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

4.10 BlocksContext 3.10

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

70% Save rateContext 66%

49% PossessionIn forecast 47%

358 PassesContext 347

292 Accurate passesContext 273

82% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.69

12.90 FoulsContext 14.30

15.50 Fouls sufferedContext 14.70

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Gazişehir Gaziantep

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,013 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Kasimpasa

Rest10 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel850 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Gazişehir Gaziantep	Kasimpasa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 Feb	10Süper Lig 2025-2026, 30 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	850 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,013 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Gazişehir Gaziantep Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

20Z. Görgen(G)

77K. Rodrigues 5N. Mujakić 23T. Sanuç 30N. Sangaré

44A. Maxim 61O. Özçiçek

11C. Lungoyi 3D. Camara 10K. Kozłowski

9M. Bayo

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Kasimpasa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Gianniotis(G)

12A. Ben Ouanes 20N. Opoku 50Rodrigo Becão 22K. Çörekçi

26K. Demirbay 16A. Baldursson

18J. Allevinah 19A. Benedyczak 71İ. Kahveci

23C. Tosun

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Gazişehir Gaziantep Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Kasimpasa Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Gazişehir Gaziantep+0.1 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Kasimpasa+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Gazişehir Gaziantep · Home 1.20points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 3-3-4
Scored: 1.30
Conceded: 1.80

Kasimpasa · Away 1.10points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 3-2-5
Scored: 0.90
Conceded: 1.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Gazişehir Gaziantep	Kasimpasa
Genclerbirligi	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H	D 0–0 H
Konyaspor	D 1–1 HL 0–3 A	D 1–1 H
Galatasaray	D 1–1 AL 0–3 H	L 0–3 A
Istanbul Basaksehir	L 1–5 A	L 1–3 H
Goztepe	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 H
Besiktas	D 2–2 A	D 1–1 H
Eyüpspor	L 1–2 H	L 0–2 A
Kayserispor	W 3–0 A	L 2–3 A
Rizespor	D 2–2 H	W 2–1 A
Alanyaspor	D 0–0 A	W 2–1 A
Fenerbahce	L 0–4 H	D 1–1 H
Antalyaspor	W 3–2 H	D 0–0 HL 1–2 A
Fatih Karagümrük	W 2–0 A	W 1–0 A
Samsunspor	D 2–2 H	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A
Trabzonspor	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H
Kocaelispor	W 2–0 H	D 0–0 A
Points	22 of 57 · 1.16 per game	16 of 57 · 0.84 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins2 draws1 Kasimpasa wins

Goals per game2.20 – 2.00 Over 2.580% Both scored80% Clean sheets20% · 0%

30 Aug 2025Kasimpasa2–3Gazişehir Gaziantep
24 May 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep2–2Kasimpasa
5 Jan 2025Kasimpasa2–2Gazişehir Gaziantep
21 Apr 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep2–0Kasimpasa
3 Dec 2023Kasimpasa4–2Gazişehir Gaziantep

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Gazişehir Gaziantep	Kasimpasa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.35	0.75
Conceded per game	1.70	1.35
Match goals	3.05	2.10	2.61
Over 1.5	90%	65%
Over 2.5	65%	40%	48%
Over 3.5	35%	15%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	20%	25%
Failed to score	25%	45%
Games	20	20

	Gazişehir Gaziantep	Kasimpasa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.60
Conceded per game	1.60	1.50
Match goals	2.80	2.10	2.61
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	48%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	53%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	20%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Gazişehir Gaziantep	Kasimpasa	League
Corners
Corners won	5.37	4.83
Corners conceded	4.68	4.72
Match total	10.05	9.55	9.30
Over 8.5	58% 11/19	56% 10/18
Over 9.5	42% 8/19	44% 8/18
Over 10.5	42% 8/19	28% 5/18
Cards
Cards	3.20	2.25
Opponent cards	3.50	2.10
Match total	6.70	4.35	4.66
Over 3.5	90% 18/20	70% 14/20
Over 4.5	85% 17/20	30% 6/20

	Gazişehir Gaziantep	Kasimpasa	League
Corners
Corners won	5.11	4.70
Corners conceded	5.22	4.40
Match total	10.33	9.10	9.30
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.00
Opponent cards	3.10	2.20
Match total	5.70	4.20	4.66
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mehmet Turkmen Türkiye · 12 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.75league 4.41

Red cards0.00league 0.22

Cards 5+17%league 46%

Fouls22.4league 25.9

Penalties0.17league 0.26

Home wins50%league 35%

Gazişehir Gaziantep2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W22 Nov 25A · Kayserispor3–01
L3 May 25A · Rizespor0–20

Kasimpasa

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.