Gazişehir Gaziantep
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Gazişehir Gaziantep
9th · 25 pts · 20 played
LLDDL
2–1Full time
Kasimpasa
16th · 16 pts · 20 played
DLDLL
Gazişehir Gaziantep44.2%fair odds 2.26
Draw27.2%fair odds 3.67
Kasimpasa28.5%fair odds 3.50
Expected goals1.47 – 1.13total 2.61
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Kasimpasa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Gazişehir Gaziantep ↓ · Kasimpasa → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Gazişehir Gaziantep goals, columns Kasimpasa goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.71
- 1–010.2%9.80
- 2–19.1%11.03
- 0–08.0%12.45
- 2–08.0%12.51
- 0–17.7%12.96
- 1–27.0%14.30
- 2–25.1%19.43
- 0–24.7%21.05
- 3–14.5%22.47
Winning margin
8.6%
Gazişehir Gaziantep by 3+
fair 11.65
13.5%
Gazişehir Gaziantep by 2
fair 7.42
22.2%
Gazişehir Gaziantep by 1
fair 4.51
27.2%
Draw
fair 3.67
17.0%
Kasimpasa by 1
fair 5.90
8.0%
Kasimpasa by 2
fair 12.48
3.6%
Kasimpasa by 3+
fair 27.98
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Gazişehir Gaziantep goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Kasimpasa goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep win | 44.2% | 44.0% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 27.2% | 27.2% | -0.0 pp |
| Kasimpasa win | 28.5% | 28.8% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.3% | 48.3% | -0.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.9% | 53.0% | -0.1 pp |
| Expected goals Gazişehir Gaziantep | 1.47 | 1.47 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Kasimpasa | 1.13 | 1.14 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Gazişehir Gaziantep win44.2%2.26
- Draw27.2%3.67
- Kasimpasa win28.5%3.50
- Double chance Gazişehir Gaziantep or draw71.5%1.40
- Double chance Gazişehir Gaziantep or Kasimpasa72.8%1.37
- Double chance Kasimpasa or draw55.8%1.79
- Draw no bet Gazişehir Gaziantep60.8%1.64
- Draw no bet Kasimpasa39.2%2.55
Goals
- Over 0.592.0%1.09
- Over 1.574.0%1.35
- Over 2.548.3%2.07
- Over 3.526.5%3.77
- Over 4.512.4%8.10
- Under 1.526.0%3.85
- Under 2.551.7%1.94
- Under 3.573.5%1.36
Both teams to score
- Yes52.9%1.89
- No47.1%2.12
- Yes and over 2.540.0%2.50
- Gazişehir Gaziantep win and yes20.1%4.97
- Draw and yes19.2%5.21
- Kasimpasa win and yes13.6%7.34
Team goals
- Gazişehir Gaziantep over 0.577.1%1.30
- Gazişehir Gaziantep over 1.543.3%2.31
- Gazişehir Gaziantep over 2.518.4%5.43
- Kasimpasa over 0.567.8%1.47
- Kasimpasa over 1.531.4%3.19
- Kasimpasa over 2.510.7%9.37
- Gazişehir Gaziantep clean sheet32.2%3.11
- Kasimpasa clean sheet22.9%4.36
- Gazişehir Gaziantep win to nil24.1%4.15
- Kasimpasa win to nil14.9%6.70
Handicap
- Gazişehir Gaziantep −1.522.1%4.53
- Gazişehir Gaziantep −2.58.6%11.65
- Kasimpasa +1.577.9%1.28
- Kasimpasa +2.591.4%1.09
- Kasimpasa −1.511.6%8.63
- Gazişehir Gaziantep +1.588.4%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored187
Favourite won49.2%
Avg chance given to result40.4%
1X2 Brier0.593
Over 2.5 called right52.9%
BTTS called right53.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 25 | 38.0% | 36.0% |
| 40–50% | 80 | 44.1% | 36.3% |
| 50–60% | 45 | 55.0% | 53.3% |
| 60–70% | 22 | 64.8% | 77.3% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 76.1% | 83.3% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 81.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 161 of 187 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5982 | 0.5853 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.1% | 41.3% |
| Favourite won | 50.3% | 50.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 161 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 187 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.