Gazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Rizespor. Gazişehir Gaziantep had 6.1 days of rest, Rizespor 7.1 and had to travel 517 km.
Away travel517 kmRest days6.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Gazişehir Gaziantep38%
Draw26%
Rizespor36%
Gazişehir Gaziantep41%
Draw26%
Rizespor33%
Gazişehir Gaziantep38%
Draw26%
Rizespor36%
Gazişehir Gaziantep31%
Draw26%
Rizespor43%
Gazişehir Gaziantep38%
Draw26%
Rizespor36%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gaziantep)
No weather data yet
RefereeBatuhan Kolak
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 20
Team strength
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rizespor
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
15
AttackIn forecast
22
18
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Gazişehir GaziantepRizespor
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.69
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.48
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-1.19
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.00
ShotsContext
21.00
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
32%
On target shareContext
31%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
53%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
2%
4.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.50
Shots allowedContext
6.50
1.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.00
BlocksContext
—
1.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
67%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
449
PassesContext
499
378
Accurate passesContext
443
84%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.73
15.50
FoulsContext
12.00
18.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.50
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.60
ShotsContext
15.20
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
33%
On target shareContext
31%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
61%
Box shareContext
59%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.57
13.80
Shots allowedContext
12.10
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.70
BlocksContext
3.33
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
67%
Save rateContext
67%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
404
PassesContext
429
338
Accurate passesContext
363
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.30
FoulsContext
13.30
15.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gazişehir Gaziantep
DW
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,700 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 51 · 4 pts vs 3.9 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gazişehir Gaziantep |
Rizespor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 23 Aug | 7.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 22 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 517 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,700 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
25K. Tobiasz(G)
96F. Ștefan
6U. Meleke
14L. Abena
2Luis Pérez
18D. Sorescu
22S. Hansen
44A. Maxim
8V. Gidado
10K. Kozłowski
97F. Bavuk
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
17Z. Ariss
93M. Sagnan
4A. Mocsi
54M. Pala
14T. Antalyalı
99E. Bulut
10I. Olawoyin
20Q. Laçi
23A. Kutucu
9A. Sowe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gazişehir Gaziantep
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rizespor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gazişehir Gaziantep+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rizespor+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Rizespor · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins1 draws3 Rizespor wins
Goals per game1.17 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 13 Apr 2026Rizespor2–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 8 Nov 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep2–2Rizespor
- 3 May 2025Rizespor2–0Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 9 Dec 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep1–0Rizespor
- 17 Mar 2024Rizespor3–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 6 Nov 2023Gazişehir Gaziantep2–0Rizespor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 1.50 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 8.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 9.50 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 10.00 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.90 | 3.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Batuhan Kolak 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.35league 3.05
Red cards0.20league 0.20
Cards 5+35%league 35%
Fouls25.8league 25.7
Penalties0.40league 0.35
Home wins35%league 40%
Gazişehir Gaziantep2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L9 May 26A · Goztepe1–22
- D27 Sep 25H · Samsunspor2–23
RizesporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gazişehir Gaziantep2 games · scored 2 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Rizespor2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
