Gazişehir Gaziantep
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Gazişehir Gaziantep37.5%fair odds 2.67
Draw27.2%fair odds 3.67
Rizespor35.3%fair odds 2.83
Expected goals1.36 – 1.32total 2.68
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Rizespor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Gazişehir Gaziantep ↓ · Rizespor → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Gazişehir Gaziantep goals, columns Rizespor goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.72
- 1–08.7%11.50
- 2–18.4%11.91
- 0–18.4%11.95
- 1–28.1%12.35
- 0–07.5%13.32
- 2–06.4%15.68
- 0–25.9%16.85
- 2–25.5%18.10
- 3–13.8%26.19
Winning margin
6.3%
Gazişehir Gaziantep by 3+
fair 15.82
11.2%
Gazişehir Gaziantep by 2
fair 8.96
20.0%
Gazişehir Gaziantep by 1
fair 5.00
27.2%
Draw
fair 3.67
19.3%
Rizespor by 1
fair 5.19
10.4%
Rizespor by 2
fair 9.63
5.6%
Rizespor by 3+
fair 17.86
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Gazişehir Gaziantep goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Rizespor goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep win | 37.5% | 37.7% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 27.2% | 27.4% | -0.1 pp |
| Rizespor win | 35.3% | 35.0% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 49.6% | +0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.1% | 54.7% | +0.5 pp |
| Expected goals Gazişehir Gaziantep | 1.36 | 1.36 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Rizespor | 1.32 | 1.30 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Gazişehir Gaziantep win37.5%2.67
- Draw27.2%3.67
- Rizespor win35.3%2.83
- Double chance Gazişehir Gaziantep or draw64.7%1.54
- Double chance Gazişehir Gaziantep or Rizespor72.8%1.37
- Double chance Rizespor or draw62.5%1.60
- Draw no bet Gazişehir Gaziantep51.5%1.94
- Draw no bet Rizespor48.5%2.06
Goals
- Over 0.592.5%1.08
- Over 1.575.4%1.33
- Over 2.550.2%1.99
- Over 3.528.2%3.55
- Over 4.513.4%7.45
- Under 1.524.6%4.07
- Under 2.549.8%2.01
- Under 3.571.8%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes55.1%1.81
- No44.9%2.23
- Yes and over 2.542.2%2.37
- Gazişehir Gaziantep win and yes18.2%5.50
- Draw and yes19.7%5.07
- Rizespor win and yes17.2%5.81
Team goals
- Gazişehir Gaziantep over 0.574.4%1.34
- Gazişehir Gaziantep over 1.539.6%2.53
- Gazişehir Gaziantep over 2.515.8%6.33
- Rizespor over 0.573.2%1.37
- Rizespor over 1.537.9%2.64
- Rizespor over 2.514.7%6.82
- Gazişehir Gaziantep clean sheet26.8%3.73
- Rizespor clean sheet25.6%3.91
- Gazişehir Gaziantep win to nil19.3%5.18
- Rizespor win to nil18.1%5.54
Handicap
- Gazişehir Gaziantep −1.517.5%5.72
- Gazişehir Gaziantep −2.56.3%15.82
- Rizespor +1.582.5%1.21
- Rizespor +2.593.7%1.07
- Rizespor −1.516.0%6.25
- Gazişehir Gaziantep +1.584.0%1.19
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored20
Favourite won30.0%
Avg chance given to result35.7%
1X2 Brier0.688
Over 2.5 called right50.0%
BTTS called right45.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 39.1% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 11 | 44.8% | 9.1% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 57.6% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.1% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 77.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 20 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 20 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.