Gazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Gazişehir Gaziantep
7th · 10 pts · 6 played
LWWWD
2–2Full time
Samsunspor
4th · 11 pts · 6 played
WDLDW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 22). Absences weigh more on Samsunspor. Gazişehir Gaziantep had 6.9 days of rest, Samsunspor 5.9 and had to travel 478 km.
Away travel478 kmRest days6.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 3
Gazişehir Gaziantep39%
Draw27%
Samsunspor34%
Gazişehir Gaziantep38%
Draw27%
Samsunspor35%
Gazişehir Gaziantep38%
Draw27%
Samsunspor35%
Gazişehir Gaziantep32%
Draw27%
Samsunspor42%
Gazişehir Gaziantep39%
Draw27%
Samsunspor34%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gaziantep)
No weather data yet
RefereeBatuhan Kolak
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 6
Team strength
Gazişehir GaziantepSamsunspor
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
15
AttackIn forecast
15
18
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSamsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Gazişehir GaziantepSamsunspor
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.63
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
67%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.00
ShotsContext
12.50
3.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.83
26%
On target shareContext
31%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
54%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.33
13.67
Shots allowedContext
9.67
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.17
3.33
BlocksContext
2.80
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
63%
Save rateContext
83%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
371
PassesContext
428
302
Accurate passesContext
359
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.79
15.17
FoulsContext
13.50
16.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
3.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.78
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.90
ShotsContext
13.10
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
31%
On target shareContext
35%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
8.63
59%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.56
13.10
Shots allowedContext
10.50
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.44
BlocksContext
2.67
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
65%
Save rateContext
77%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
375
PassesContext
442
307
Accurate passesContext
374
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.90
14.20
FoulsContext
12.70
14.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km966 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Samsunspor
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel478 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gazişehir Gaziantep |
Samsunspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 5.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 21 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 478 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 966 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
71M. Bozan(G)
23T. Sanuç
14L. Abena
4A. Kızıldağ
77K. Rodrigues
44A. Maxim
6M. Kabasakal
2Luis Pérez
18D. Sorescu
10K. Kozłowski
9M. Bayo
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson
4R. van Drongelen
37Ľ. Šatka
18Z. Yavru
55Y. Çift
7A. Musaba
10J. Ntcham
21C. Holse
70T. Coulibaly
19P. Ndiaye
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gazişehir Gaziantep
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Samsunspor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gazişehir Gaziantep+0.9 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Samsunspor-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Samsunspor · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 10 of 12 · 2.50 per game | 8 of 12 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins1 draws2 Samsunspor wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 24 Jan 2025Samsunspor2–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 18 Aug 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep0–1Samsunspor
- 18 Feb 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep1–1Samsunspor
- 29 Sep 2023Samsunspor1–2Gazişehir Gaziantep
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.33 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.33 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.33 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.67 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 7.17 | 4.33 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 6/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 6/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 10.70 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.30 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 6.20 | 5.10 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Batuhan Kolak 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 4.51
Red cards0.00league 0.25
Cards 5+17%league 49%
Fouls24.3league 26.5
Penalties0.17league 0.25
Home wins17%league 38%
Gazişehir GaziantepNo previous matches with this referee.
SamsunsporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gazişehir Gaziantep6 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Samsunspor6 games · scored 8 · conceded 6
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
