Süper Lig Gameweek 7 Sat, Sep 27 · 15:00 Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep
Gazişehir Gaziantep 7th · 10 pts · 6 played
2–2Full time
Samsunspor 4th · 11 pts · 6 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Gazişehir Gaziantep38.7%fair odds 2.58
Draw27.0%fair odds 3.71
Samsunspor34.3%fair odds 2.91
Expected goals1.41 – 1.31total 2.72
Likeliest score1–112.8%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Gazişehir Gaziantep

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Samsunspor

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Gazişehir Gaziantep ↓ · Samsunspor →0123456+
07.28.05.72.50.80.20.1
18.612.88.03.51.10.30.1
26.58.65.62.50.80.20.1
33.14.02.61.20.40.10.0
41.11.40.90.40.10.00.0
50.30.40.30.10.00.00.0
6+0.10.10.10.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Gazişehir Gaziantep goals, columns Samsunspor goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–112.8%7.80
  • 1–08.6%11.58
  • 2–18.6%11.67
  • 0–18.0%12.50
  • 1–28.0%12.53
  • 0–07.2%13.82
  • 2–06.5%15.31
  • 0–25.7%17.63
  • 2–25.6%17.80
  • 3–14.0%24.88

Winning margin

6.8% Gazişehir Gaziantep by 3+ fair 14.63
11.6% Gazişehir Gaziantep by 2 fair 8.62
20.3% Gazişehir Gaziantep by 1 fair 4.93
27.0% Draw fair 3.71
18.9% Samsunspor by 1 fair 5.30
10.1% Samsunspor by 2 fair 9.93
5.4% Samsunspor by 3+ fair 18.57

Goal distribution

Total goals

7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+

Gazişehir Gaziantep goals

24%0
34%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+

Samsunspor goals

27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Gazişehir Gaziantep win 38.7% 38.9% -0.2 pp
Draw 27.0% 27.2% -0.3 pp
Samsunspor win 34.3% 33.9% +0.4 pp
Over 2.5 51.1% 50.0% +1.1 pp
Both teams score 55.8% 54.9% +0.9 pp
Expected goals Gazişehir Gaziantep 1.41 1.39 +0.02
Expected goals Samsunspor 1.31 1.28 +0.03

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Gazişehir Gaziantep win38.7%2.58
  • Draw27.0%3.71
  • Samsunspor win34.3%2.91
  • Double chance Gazişehir Gaziantep or draw65.7%1.52
  • Double chance Gazişehir Gaziantep or Samsunspor73.0%1.37
  • Double chance Samsunspor or draw61.3%1.63
  • Draw no bet Gazişehir Gaziantep53.0%1.89
  • Draw no bet Samsunspor47.0%2.13

Goals

  • Over 0.592.8%1.08
  • Over 1.576.1%1.31
  • Over 2.551.1%1.96
  • Over 3.529.0%3.45
  • Over 4.514.0%7.14
  • Under 1.523.9%4.19
  • Under 2.548.9%2.05
  • Under 3.571.0%1.41

Both teams to score

  • Yes55.8%1.79
  • No44.2%2.26
  • Yes and over 2.543.0%2.33
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep win and yes19.0%5.26
  • Draw and yes19.7%5.07
  • Samsunspor win and yes17.1%5.86

Team goals

  • Gazişehir Gaziantep over 0.575.5%1.32
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep over 1.541.1%2.43
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep over 2.516.8%5.94
  • Samsunspor over 0.573.1%1.37
  • Samsunspor over 1.537.7%2.65
  • Samsunspor over 2.514.6%6.87
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep clean sheet26.9%3.71
  • Samsunspor clean sheet24.5%4.09
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep win to nil19.7%5.08
  • Samsunspor win to nil17.2%5.80

Handicap

  • Gazişehir Gaziantep −1.518.4%5.42
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep −2.56.8%14.63
  • Samsunspor +1.581.6%1.23
  • Samsunspor +2.593.2%1.07
  • Samsunspor −1.515.5%6.47
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep +1.584.5%1.18

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored53 Favourite won43.4% Avg chance given to result41.1% 1X2 Brier0.581 Over 2.5 called right54.7% BTTS called right45.3%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%738.2%14.3%
40–50%2344.5%21.7%
50–60%1255.2%58.3%
60–70%865.8%87.5%
70–80%277.7%100.0%
80%+180.2%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 29 of 53 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.60100.5614
Avg chance given to result39.7%42.7%
Favourite won44.8%51.7%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 29 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 53 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.