Genclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Amed were slight favourites.
Amed were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Amed. Genclerbirligi had 20.7 days of rest, Amed 19.7 and had to travel 675 km.
Away travel675 kmRest days20.7 · 19.7Matches / 14d0 · 0
Genclerbirligi24%
Draw23%
Amed53%
Genclerbirligi30%
Draw26%
Amed44%
Genclerbirligi24%
Draw23%
Amed54%
Genclerbirligi19%
Draw20%
Amed61%
Genclerbirligi24%
Draw22%
Amed54%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ankara)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeUmit Ozturk
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 12
Team strength
Genclerbirligi
Amed
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
13
AttackIn forecast
38
16
DefenceIn forecast
46
17
Form indexContext
62
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAmed
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenclerbirligiAmed
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
2.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.92
1.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
67%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.83
ShotsContext
14.00
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
30%
On target shareContext
36%
6.83
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
56%
Box shareContext
53%
7%
ConversionContext
18%
2.25
OffsidesContext
3.00
17.33
Shots allowedContext
10.50
7.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.00
BlocksContext
3.40
5.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
75%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
356
PassesContext
393
290
Accurate passesContext
324
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.91
11.83
FoulsContext
14.33
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.17
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
3.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.92
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
70%
Scored inContext
83%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.80
ShotsContext
14.00
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
34%
On target shareContext
36%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
57%
Box shareContext
53%
10%
ConversionContext
18%
1.71
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.70
Shots allowedContext
10.50
6.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.11
BlocksContext
3.40
4.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
75%
Save rateContext
67%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
360
PassesContext
393
291
Accurate passesContext
324
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.91
11.30
FoulsContext
14.33
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.17
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
3.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genclerbirligi
WDLLL
Rest20.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 17 · 4 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
Amed
LWDWW
Rest19.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel675 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 62 · 10 pts vs 8.6 for an average club · +2.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genclerbirligi |
Amed |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 19.7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 675 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
70İ. Eğribayat(G)
2T. da Silva
6D. Goutas
90M. Baltacı
77A. Dursun
42Ousmane Diabate
83R. Luis
88F. Üzüm
10F. Tongya
7Tiago Gouveia
9Pedro Mendes
Amed
Confirmed XI
40A. Lafont(G)
17C. Meraş
4D. Bates
5L. Dellova
7E. Krasniqi
8F. Soyalp
22R. Raveloson
74Mohamed Khalil
91D. Sabi'a
10S. Ballet
99G. Orban
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genclerbirligi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Amed
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genclerbirligi+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Amed-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Genclerbirligi · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Amed · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Genclerbirligi | Amed |
|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–4 A | W 5–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–5 A | W 2–1 H |
| Erzurumspor FK | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 1 of 12 · 0.25 per game | 10 of 12 · 2.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Genclerbirligi | Amed | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.67 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 83% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Genclerbirligi | Amed | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.67 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 83% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 17% | |
| Games | 10 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genclerbirligi | Amed | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 8.50 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 3.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 5.66 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Genclerbirligi | Amed | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.50 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 3.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.66 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Umit Ozturk Türkiye · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.33league 4.04
Red cards0.17league 0.18
Cards 5+58%league 44%
Fouls25.0league 25.4
Penalties0.33league 0.35
Home wins25%league 49%
Genclerbirligi2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D28 Aug 26H · Erzurumspor FK1–13
- D1 Mar 26H · Kayserispor0–01
Amed1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Aug 26A · Kocaelispor0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genclerbirligi6 games · scored 5 · conceded 13
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
76-90
Amed6 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
6
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Amed6 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
