Genclerbirligi
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Genclerbirligi23.8%fair odds 4.21
Draw23.6%fair odds 4.23
Amed52.6%fair odds 1.90
Expected goals1.20 – 1.88total 3.08
Likeliest score1–110.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Amed
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Genclerbirligi ↓ · Amed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Genclerbirligi goals, columns Amed goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%9.15
- 1–29.7%10.27
- 0–28.1%12.34
- 0–18.1%12.37
- 2–16.2%16.03
- 1–36.1%16.41
- 2–25.9%17.08
- 0–05.1%19.42
- 0–35.1%19.73
- 1–05.0%20.08
Winning margin
3.1%
Genclerbirligi by 3+
fair 32.61
6.6%
Genclerbirligi by 2
fair 15.04
14.1%
Genclerbirligi by 1
fair 7.11
23.6%
Draw
fair 4.23
22.3%
Amed by 1
fair 4.49
16.2%
Amed by 2
fair 6.17
14.1%
Amed by 3+
fair 7.07
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Genclerbirligi goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
Amed goals
15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi win | 23.8% | 23.7% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 23.6% | 23.1% | +0.5 pp |
| Amed win | 52.6% | 53.1% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.4% | 61.5% | -2.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.8% | 61.3% | -1.5 pp |
| Expected goals Genclerbirligi | 1.20 | 1.24 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Amed | 1.88 | 1.94 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Genclerbirligi win23.8%4.21
- Draw23.6%4.23
- Amed win52.6%1.90
- Double chance Genclerbirligi or draw47.4%2.11
- Double chance Genclerbirligi or Amed76.4%1.31
- Double chance Amed or draw76.2%1.31
- Draw no bet Genclerbirligi31.1%3.21
- Draw no bet Amed68.9%1.45
Goals
- Over 0.594.9%1.05
- Over 1.581.8%1.22
- Over 2.559.4%1.68
- Over 3.537.1%2.70
- Over 4.519.8%5.04
- Under 1.518.2%5.49
- Under 2.540.6%2.47
- Under 3.562.9%1.59
Both teams to score
- Yes59.8%1.67
- No40.2%2.49
- Yes and over 2.548.9%2.05
- Genclerbirligi win and yes13.6%7.34
- Draw and yes18.5%5.41
- Amed win and yes27.7%3.61
Team goals
- Genclerbirligi over 0.570.0%1.43
- Genclerbirligi over 1.533.8%2.96
- Genclerbirligi over 2.512.1%8.26
- Amed over 0.584.7%1.18
- Amed over 1.556.0%1.79
- Amed over 2.529.0%3.45
- Genclerbirligi clean sheet15.3%6.53
- Amed clean sheet30.0%3.33
- Genclerbirligi win to nil10.2%9.85
- Amed win to nil24.9%4.02
Handicap
- Genclerbirligi −1.59.7%10.29
- Genclerbirligi −2.53.1%32.61
- Amed +1.590.3%1.11
- Amed +2.596.9%1.03
- Amed −1.530.3%3.30
- Genclerbirligi +1.569.7%1.44
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored55
Favourite won45.5%
Avg chance given to result39.3%
1X2 Brier0.614
Over 2.5 called right60.0%
BTTS called right47.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 9 | 38.7% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 22 | 44.9% | 36.4% |
| 50–60% | 14 | 55.2% | 42.9% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 65.0% | 60.0% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 74.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 29 of 55 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5880 | 0.5895 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.4% | 40.8% |
| Favourite won | 51.7% | 48.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 29 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 55 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.