Genclerbirligi
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Genclerbirligi15.2%fair odds 6.57
Draw21.1%fair odds 4.73
Fenerbahce63.6%fair odds 1.57
Expected goals0.92 – 2.08total 3.01
Likeliest score0–210.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Fenerbahce
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Genclerbirligi ↓ · Fenerbahce → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.8 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Genclerbirligi goals, columns Fenerbahce goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–210.7%9.32
- 1–110.0%9.99
- 1–29.9%10.09
- 0–19.8%10.21
- 0–37.5%13.41
- 1–36.9%14.53
- 0–05.4%18.36
- 2–24.6%21.86
- 2–14.4%22.78
- 1–04.1%24.64
Winning margin
1.3%
Genclerbirligi by 3+
fair 77.61
3.8%
Genclerbirligi by 2
fair 26.13
10.1%
Genclerbirligi by 1
fair 9.90
21.1%
Draw
fair 4.73
23.4%
Fenerbahce by 1
fair 4.27
19.5%
Fenerbahce by 2
fair 5.13
20.7%
Fenerbahce by 3+
fair 4.83
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Genclerbirligi goals
40%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
Fenerbahce goals
12%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
16%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi win | 15.2% | 15.9% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 21.1% | 21.8% | -0.7 pp |
| Fenerbahce win | 63.6% | 62.3% | +1.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.8% | 56.2% | +1.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.3% | 52.7% | +0.6 pp |
| Expected goals Genclerbirligi | 0.92 | 0.92 | +0.00 |
| Expected goals Fenerbahce | 2.08 | 2.02 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Genclerbirligi win15.2%6.57
- Draw21.1%4.73
- Fenerbahce win63.6%1.57
- Double chance Genclerbirligi or draw36.4%2.75
- Double chance Genclerbirligi or Fenerbahce78.9%1.27
- Double chance Fenerbahce or draw84.8%1.18
- Draw no bet Genclerbirligi19.3%5.18
- Draw no bet Fenerbahce80.7%1.24
Goals
- Over 0.594.6%1.06
- Over 1.580.7%1.24
- Over 2.557.8%1.73
- Over 3.535.4%2.82
- Over 4.518.6%5.38
- Under 1.519.3%5.18
- Under 2.542.2%2.37
- Under 3.564.6%1.55
Both teams to score
- Yes53.3%1.88
- No46.7%2.14
- Yes and over 2.543.3%2.31
- Genclerbirligi win and yes8.2%12.16
- Draw and yes15.7%6.37
- Fenerbahce win and yes29.4%3.41
Team goals
- Genclerbirligi over 0.560.3%1.66
- Genclerbirligi over 1.523.6%4.24
- Genclerbirligi over 2.56.7%14.98
- Fenerbahce over 0.587.6%1.14
- Fenerbahce over 1.561.6%1.62
- Fenerbahce over 2.534.6%2.89
- Genclerbirligi clean sheet12.4%8.04
- Fenerbahce clean sheet39.7%2.52
- Genclerbirligi win to nil7.0%14.30
- Fenerbahce win to nil34.3%2.92
Handicap
- Genclerbirligi −1.55.1%19.55
- Genclerbirligi −2.51.3%77.61
- Fenerbahce +1.594.9%1.05
- Fenerbahce +2.598.7%1.01
- Fenerbahce −1.540.2%2.49
- Genclerbirligi +1.559.8%1.67
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored3
Favourite won0.0%
Avg chance given to result25.5%
1X2 Brier0.896
Over 2.5 called right66.7%
BTTS called right66.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 2 | 44.2% | 0.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 67.7% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 3 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 3 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.