Genclerbirligi vs Kasimpasa – 13 Sep 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 13 · 15:00 Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

Genclerbirligi 10th · 7 pts · 4 played WWDL

1–2Full time

Kasimpasa 12th · 6 pts · 4 played DWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Kasimpasa. Genclerbirligi had 6.9 days of rest, Kasimpasa 7 and had to travel 352 km.

Away travel352 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2

Genclerbirligi38%

Draw26%

Kasimpasa36%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.29

Genclerbirligi40%

Draw26%

Kasimpasa34%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.27

Genclerbirligi36%

Draw26%

Kasimpasa37%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.32

Genclerbirligi31%

Draw26%

Kasimpasa43%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.45

Genclerbirligi38%

Draw26%

Kasimpasa37%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.36

Over 2.5 49% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ankara)

No weather data yet

RefereeYasin Kol

Cards per match 5.5
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 43

Team strength

Genclerbirligi

Kasimpasa

17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

15 Current StrengthIn forecast 23

13 AttackIn forecast 21

16 DefenceIn forecast 32

57 Form indexContext 45

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Genclerbirligi

Attack—

Defense risk—

Kasimpasa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Genclerbirligi

Kasimpasa

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

1.89 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.91

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

75% Scored inContext 100%

25% Clean sheetsContext 25%

12.50 ShotsContext 10.25

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.75

32% On target shareContext 37%

6.75 Shots in the boxContext 5.25

55% Box shareContext 51%

8% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

18.50 Shots allowedContext 13.75

8.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.25

4.67 BlocksContext 3.75

6.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

79% Save rateContext 69%

44% PossessionIn forecast 36%

361 PassesContext 333

291 Accurate passesContext 256

81% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.78

11.50 FoulsContext 14.50

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 0.94

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.36

70% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.00 ShotsContext 8.80

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.30

34% On target shareContext 38%

6.80 Shots in the boxContext 4.70

56% Box shareContext 55%

10% ConversionContext 15%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.80

13.70 Shots allowedContext 12.20

6.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.33 BlocksContext 2.56

5.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

77% Save rateContext 67%

47% PossessionIn forecast 40%

365 PassesContext 320

293 Accurate passesContext 247

80% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.74

11.30 FoulsContext 13.30

14.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Genclerbirligi WWDL

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,187 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 57 · 7 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +3.0 vs expected

L6 SepA · Trabzonspor0–50.9 xPts
D28 AugH · Erzurumspor FK1–11.6 xPts
W23 AugA · Goztepe1–00.8 xPts
W15 AugH · Fenerbahce2–10.7 xPts

Kasimpasa DWDD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel352 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 45 · 6 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected

D6 SepH · Amed2–21.5 xPts
D30 AugA · Istanbul Basaksehir1–10.8 xPts
W22 AugA · Çorum FK1–01.0 xPts
D15 AugH · Trabzonspor1–11.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Genclerbirligi	Kasimpasa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 6 Sep	7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 6 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	352 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,187 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	5.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Genclerbirligi Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

70İ. Eğribayat(G)

77A. Dursun 2T. da Silva 6D. Goutas 13Pedro Pereira

42Ousmane Diabate

7Tiago Gouveia 10F. Tongya 35O. Ülgün 14A. Traoré

9Pedro Mendes

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Kasimpasa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Gianniotis(G)

45A. Karapo 27M. Ilie 14Kevin Mouanga 2C. Winck Neto

26K. Demirbay 51Elson Mendes

7A. Kol 66E. Boz 17J. Rak-Sakyi

9A. Benedyczak

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Genclerbirligi Absences are shown before kick-off

Kasimpasa Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Genclerbirligi+1.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Kasimpasa-1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Genclerbirligi · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.00

Kasimpasa · Away 2.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Genclerbirligi	Kasimpasa
Trabzonspor	L 0–5 A	D 1–1 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Genclerbirligi wins1 draws0 Kasimpasa wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 50%

9 May 2026Genclerbirligi3–2Kasimpasa
12 Dec 2025Kasimpasa0–0Genclerbirligi

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Genclerbirligi	Kasimpasa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.25
Conceded per game	1.75	1.00
Match goals	2.75	2.25	2.62
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	25%	49%
Over 3.5	25%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	75%	53%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	25%	0%
Games	4	4

	Genclerbirligi	Kasimpasa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.30
Conceded per game	1.50	1.50
Match goals	2.70	2.80	2.62
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	49%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	53%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Genclerbirligi	Kasimpasa	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	2.67
Corners conceded	7.25	8.00
Match total	10.25	10.67	9.38
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	67% 2/3
Over 9.5	50% 2/4	67% 2/3
Over 10.5	50% 2/4	67% 2/3
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.75
Opponent cards	2.00	1.25
Match total	3.50	4.00	3.81
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	50% 2/4
Over 4.5	25% 1/4	25% 1/4

	Genclerbirligi	Kasimpasa	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	3.22
Corners conceded	4.90	5.33
Match total	7.90	8.55	9.38
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	3.00
Opponent cards	2.60	2.00
Match total	4.40	5.00	3.81
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Yasin Kol 43 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.12league 3.63

Red cards0.40league 0.17

Cards 5+60%league 39%

Fouls26.7league 25.8

Penalties0.35league 0.37

Home wins37%league 44%

Genclerbirligi2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.5 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L15 Mar 26H · Besiktas0–23
L1 Nov 25A · Goztepe0–11

Kasimpasa4 with this referee

Record2-2-0 Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.8 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds1

D3 May 26H · Kocaelispor1–10
D23 Feb 26A · Fenerbahce1–17
W2 Feb 25A · Adana Demirspor5–32
W24 Sep 23H · Adana Demirspor2–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.