Genclerbirligi
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Genclerbirligi37.0%fair odds 2.70
Draw27.6%fair odds 3.63
Kasimpasa35.4%fair odds 2.82
Expected goals1.33 – 1.29total 2.62
Likeliest score1–113.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Kasimpasa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Genclerbirligi ↓ · Kasimpasa → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Genclerbirligi goals, columns Kasimpasa goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%7.61
- 1–09.0%11.13
- 0–18.7%11.44
- 2–18.3%12.06
- 1–28.1%12.38
- 0–07.9%12.62
- 2–06.4%15.61
- 0–26.1%16.44
- 2–25.4%18.64
- 3–13.7%27.25
Winning margin
6.0%
Genclerbirligi by 3+
fair 16.62
11.0%
Genclerbirligi by 2
fair 9.12
20.0%
Genclerbirligi by 1
fair 4.99
27.6%
Draw
fair 3.63
19.5%
Kasimpasa by 1
fair 5.13
10.4%
Kasimpasa by 2
fair 9.61
5.5%
Kasimpasa by 3+
fair 18.12
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+
Genclerbirligi goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
Kasimpasa goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi win | 37.0% | 37.0% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 27.6% | 26.8% | +0.7 pp |
| Kasimpasa win | 35.4% | 36.2% | -0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.7% | 51.8% | -3.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.0% | 56.4% | -2.4 pp |
| Expected goals Genclerbirligi | 1.33 | 1.38 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals Kasimpasa | 1.29 | 1.36 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Genclerbirligi win37.0%2.70
- Draw27.6%3.63
- Kasimpasa win35.4%2.82
- Double chance Genclerbirligi or draw64.6%1.55
- Double chance Genclerbirligi or Kasimpasa72.4%1.38
- Double chance Kasimpasa or draw63.0%1.59
- Draw no bet Genclerbirligi51.1%1.96
- Draw no bet Kasimpasa48.9%2.04
Goals
- Over 0.592.1%1.09
- Over 1.574.4%1.34
- Over 2.548.7%2.05
- Over 3.526.9%3.72
- Over 4.512.6%7.95
- Under 1.525.6%3.90
- Under 2.551.3%1.95
- Under 3.573.1%1.37
Both teams to score
- Yes54.0%1.85
- No46.0%2.17
- Yes and over 2.540.9%2.45
- Genclerbirligi win and yes17.5%5.71
- Draw and yes19.7%5.09
- Kasimpasa win and yes16.8%5.94
Team goals
- Genclerbirligi over 0.573.5%1.36
- Genclerbirligi over 1.538.3%2.61
- Genclerbirligi over 2.514.9%6.69
- Kasimpasa over 0.572.6%1.38
- Kasimpasa over 1.537.1%2.69
- Kasimpasa over 2.514.2%7.06
- Genclerbirligi clean sheet27.4%3.65
- Kasimpasa clean sheet26.5%3.77
- Genclerbirligi win to nil19.5%5.13
- Kasimpasa win to nil18.6%5.38
Handicap
- Genclerbirligi −1.517.0%5.89
- Genclerbirligi −2.56.0%16.62
- Kasimpasa +1.583.0%1.20
- Kasimpasa +2.594.0%1.06
- Kasimpasa −1.515.9%6.28
- Genclerbirligi +1.584.1%1.19
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored41
Favourite won43.9%
Avg chance given to result38.2%
1X2 Brier0.631
Over 2.5 called right56.1%
BTTS called right48.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 38.7% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 18 | 44.9% | 27.8% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 55.0% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 65.0% | 60.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 75.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 15 of 41 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6097 | 0.6081 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.3% | 39.1% |
| Favourite won | 53.3% | 46.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 15 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 41 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.