Genclerbirligi vs Kayserispor – 1 Mar 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 24 Sun, Mar 1 · 13:00 Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

Genclerbirligi 12th · 23 pts · 23 played LWLDL

0–0Full time

Kayserispor 17th · 19 pts · 23 played LLLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Kayserispor. Genclerbirligi had 8.1 days of rest, Kayserispor 7.1 and had to travel 262 km.

Away travel262 kmRest days8.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2

Genclerbirligi38%

Draw28%

Kayserispor34%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.22

Genclerbirligi43%

Draw27%

Kayserispor30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

Genclerbirligi39%

Draw28%

Kayserispor33%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.19

Genclerbirligi32%

Draw28%

Kayserispor41%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.37

Genclerbirligi39%

Draw28%

Kayserispor34%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.25

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ankara)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeUmit Ozturk

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 7

Team strength

Genclerbirligi

Kayserispor

14 L90 StrengthIn forecast 14

15 Current StrengthIn forecast 13

13 AttackIn forecast 16

16 DefenceIn forecast 17

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Genclerbirligi

Attack—

Defense risk—

Kayserispor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Genclerbirligi

Kayserispor

1.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.78

1.48 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.87

1.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

74% Scored inContext 61%

13% Clean sheetsContext 17%

10.74 ShotsContext 11.04

3.77 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.65

34% On target shareContext 33%

6.39 Shots in the boxContext 6.22

58% Box shareContext 56%

11% ConversionContext 7%

2.10 OffsidesContext 2.37

14.78 Shots allowedContext 14.35

4.48 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.39

4.22 BlocksContext 3.68

2.96 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.25

66% Save rateContext 72%

41% PossessionIn forecast 47%

298 PassesContext 348

232 Accurate passesContext 277

78% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.68

12.87 FoulsContext 12.35

13.09 Fouls sufferedContext 12.83

2.17 Yellow cardsContext 2.61

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.06 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

+0.34 Goals minus xGContext -0.49

70% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.60 ShotsContext 10.50

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

34% On target shareContext 31%

7.30 Shots in the boxContext 5.70

59% Box shareContext 52%

12% ConversionContext 5%

2.11 OffsidesContext 2.78

13.00 Shots allowedContext 16.20

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

3.50 BlocksContext 4.56

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.20

66% Save rateContext 81%

43% PossessionIn forecast 43%

311 PassesContext 334

243 Accurate passesContext 263

78% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.79

14.00 FoulsContext 11.40

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Genclerbirligi

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km704 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Kayserispor

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel262 km1,452 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Genclerbirligi	Kayserispor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 21 Feb	7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	262 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	704 km	1,452 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8.2	8.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Genclerbirligi Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

24Ricardo Velho(G)

2T. da Silva 4Žan Žužek 6D. Goutas 13Pedro Pereira

15A. Dele-Bashiru

10M. Mimaroğlu 70F. Tongya 11G. Gürpüz 99C. Çanak

20A. Traoré

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Kayserispor Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25B. Bayazıt(G)

28R. Civelek 4S. Denswil 6S. Güler 30J. Brenet

8L. Bénes 15Y. Aït Bennasser

20Carlos Mané 63F. Chalov 18D. Makarov

7Miguel Cardoso

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Genclerbirligi Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Kayserispor Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Genclerbirligi-0.9 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Kayserispor+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Genclerbirligi · Home 1.64points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 5-3-3
Scored: 1.73
Conceded: 1.45

Kayserispor · Away 0.83points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 1-7-4
Scored: 0.83
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Genclerbirligi	Kayserispor
Eyüpspor	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H	D 1–1 A
Rizespor	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A	W 1–0 A
Fenerbahce	L 1–3 AL 1–3 H	L 2–4 A
Gazişehir Gaziantep	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A	L 0–3 H
Antalyaspor	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A
Samsunspor	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	L 1–3 H
Trabzonspor	W 4–3 H	L 0–4 A
Kasimpasa	D 0–0 A	W 3–2 H
Fatih Karagümrük	W 3–0 H	D 2–2 A
Kocaelispor	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
Galatasaray	L 2–3 A	L 0–4 AL 0–4 H
Istanbul Basaksehir	W 2–1 H	L 0–3 HD 1–1 A
Goztepe	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H
Konyaspor	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 A
Besiktas	W 2–1 A	L 0–1 AL 0–4 H
Alanyaspor	D 2–2 H	D 0–0 H
Points	22 of 66 · 1.00 per game	18 of 66 · 0.82 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Genclerbirligi wins1 draws0 Kayserispor wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

28 Sep 2025Kayserispor1–1Genclerbirligi

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Genclerbirligi	Kayserispor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.22	0.78
Conceded per game	1.48	1.87
Match goals	2.70	2.65	2.55
Over 1.5	70%	78%
Over 2.5	61%	48%	47%
Over 3.5	26%	35%
Both teams scored	65%	52%	52%
Clean sheets	13%	17%
Failed to score	26%	39%
Games	23	23

	Genclerbirligi	Kayserispor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	0.50
Conceded per game	1.40	1.20
Match goals	2.80	1.70	2.55
Over 1.5	70%	50%
Over 2.5	60%	30%	47%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	30%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Genclerbirligi	Kayserispor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.32	4.48
Corners conceded	5.09	5.00
Match total	9.41	9.48	9.32
Over 8.5	64% 14/22	71% 15/21
Over 9.5	50% 11/22	48% 10/21
Over 10.5	45% 10/22	29% 6/21
Cards
Cards	2.39	2.65
Opponent cards	2.09	1.87
Match total	4.48	4.52	4.68
Over 3.5	61% 14/23	74% 17/23
Over 4.5	52% 12/23	48% 11/23

	Genclerbirligi	Kayserispor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	4.10
Corners conceded	5.30	5.00
Match total	9.50	9.10	9.32
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.50
Opponent cards	1.80	1.80
Match total	3.90	4.30	4.68
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Umit Ozturk Türkiye · 7 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 4.45

Red cards0.14league 0.22

Cards 5+57%league 46%

Fouls23.1league 26.0

Penalties0.29league 0.26

Home wins14%league 38%

Genclerbirligi

No previous matches with this referee.

Kayserispor2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L19 Oct 25H · Samsunspor1–32
D3 May 25A · Alanyaspor1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.