Genclerbirligi
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Genclerbirligi
12th · 23 pts · 23 played
LWLDL
0–0Full time
Kayserispor
17th · 19 pts · 23 played
LLLDW
Genclerbirligi38.3%fair odds 2.61
Draw28.0%fair odds 3.57
Kayserispor33.6%fair odds 2.97
Expected goals1.32 – 1.22total 2.55
Likeliest score1–113.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Kayserispor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Genclerbirligi ↓ · Kayserispor → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Genclerbirligi goals, columns Kayserispor goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.4%7.49
- 1–09.7%10.32
- 0–18.9%11.22
- 0–08.5%11.76
- 2–18.4%11.92
- 1–27.8%12.89
- 2–06.9%14.59
- 0–25.9%17.05
- 2–25.1%19.48
- 3–13.7%27.02
Winning margin
6.3%
Genclerbirligi by 3+
fair 15.95
11.4%
Genclerbirligi by 2
fair 8.78
20.7%
Genclerbirligi by 1
fair 4.84
28.0%
Draw
fair 3.57
19.1%
Kayserispor by 1
fair 5.24
9.7%
Kayserispor by 2
fair 10.26
4.8%
Kayserispor by 3+
fair 20.73
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Genclerbirligi goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
Kayserispor goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi win | 38.3% | 38.9% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 28.0% | 27.5% | +0.5 pp |
| Kayserispor win | 33.6% | 33.6% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.8% | 48.7% | -1.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.5% | 53.9% | -1.5 pp |
| Expected goals Genclerbirligi | 1.32 | 1.37 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals Kayserispor | 1.22 | 1.25 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Genclerbirligi win38.3%2.61
- Draw28.0%3.57
- Kayserispor win33.6%2.97
- Double chance Genclerbirligi or draw66.4%1.51
- Double chance Genclerbirligi or Kayserispor72.0%1.39
- Double chance Kayserispor or draw61.7%1.62
- Draw no bet Genclerbirligi53.3%1.88
- Draw no bet Kayserispor46.7%2.14
Goals
- Over 0.591.5%1.09
- Over 1.572.9%1.37
- Over 2.546.8%2.14
- Over 3.525.3%3.96
- Over 4.511.5%8.68
- Under 1.527.1%3.69
- Under 2.553.2%1.88
- Under 3.574.7%1.34
Both teams to score
- Yes52.5%1.91
- No47.5%2.10
- Yes and over 2.539.1%2.56
- Genclerbirligi win and yes17.4%5.74
- Draw and yes19.5%5.13
- Kayserispor win and yes15.5%6.44
Team goals
- Genclerbirligi over 0.573.4%1.36
- Genclerbirligi over 1.538.1%2.62
- Genclerbirligi over 2.514.8%6.74
- Kayserispor over 0.570.6%1.42
- Kayserispor over 1.534.6%2.89
- Kayserispor over 2.512.6%7.95
- Genclerbirligi clean sheet29.4%3.40
- Kayserispor clean sheet26.6%3.76
- Genclerbirligi win to nil20.9%4.78
- Kayserispor win to nil18.1%5.52
Handicap
- Genclerbirligi −1.517.7%5.66
- Genclerbirligi −2.56.3%15.95
- Kayserispor +1.582.3%1.21
- Kayserispor +2.593.7%1.07
- Kayserispor −1.514.6%6.86
- Genclerbirligi +1.585.4%1.17
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored213
Favourite won50.7%
Avg chance given to result40.8%
1X2 Brier0.587
Over 2.5 called right53.1%
BTTS called right53.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 29 | 38.1% | 34.5% |
| 40–50% | 90 | 44.0% | 40.0% |
| 50–60% | 51 | 55.0% | 54.9% |
| 60–70% | 24 | 65.1% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 15 | 76.0% | 80.0% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 82.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 184 of 213 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5930 | 0.5811 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.5% | 41.6% |
| Favourite won | 51.6% | 52.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 184 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 213 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.