Genclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Genclerbirligi
17th · 25 pts · 30 played
LLLLL
1–0Full time
Kocaelispor
11th · 36 pts · 30 played
LLDDD
Our take
Kocaelispor were slight favourites.
Kocaelispor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 11). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Kocaelispor. Genclerbirligi had 7.8 days of rest, Kocaelispor 7.9 and had to travel 458 km.
Away travel458 kmRest days7.8 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Genclerbirligi28%
Draw28%
Kocaelispor43%
Genclerbirligi32%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor41%
Genclerbirligi28%
Draw28%
Kocaelispor43%
Genclerbirligi23%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor51%
Genclerbirligi29%
Draw28%
Kocaelispor43%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ankara)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeMehmet Turkmen
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 19
Team strength
GenclerbirligiKocaelispor
11
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
13
AttackIn forecast
16
16
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenclerbirligiKocaelispor
0.97
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
1.47
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
60%
Scored inContext
60%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.13
ShotsContext
10.17
3.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.17
31%
On target shareContext
30%
5.97
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
56%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.08
OffsidesContext
2.32
14.60
Shots allowedContext
10.93
4.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.48
4.24
BlocksContext
3.66
3.24
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.57
70%
Save rateContext
66%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
310
PassesContext
360
243
Accurate passesContext
288
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.33
FoulsContext
14.76
13.13
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.07
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.07
0.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.64
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
30%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.40
ShotsContext
10.30
2.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.89
25%
On target shareContext
25%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
52%
Box shareContext
65%
4%
ConversionContext
9%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.50
14.00
Shots allowedContext
11.60
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.20
BlocksContext
4.20
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
77%
Save rateContext
68%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
320
PassesContext
358
254
Accurate passesContext
285
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.00
FoulsContext
16.30
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genclerbirligi
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kocaelispor
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel458 km394 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genclerbirligi |
Kocaelispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Apr | 7.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 458 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 394 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
24Ricardo Velho(G)
77A. Dursun
2T. da Silva
6D. Goutas
88F. Üzüm
8S. Onur
42Ousmane Diabate
10M. Mimaroğlu
70F. Tongya
20A. Traoré
22S. Koïta
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
83Serhat Öztaşdelen
21M. Haïdara
6H. Smolčić
2A. Dijksteel
22A. Oğuz
8H. Keïta
10K. Linetty
75T. Bingöl
98J. Nonge Boende
7Daniel Agyei
99R. Rivas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genclerbirligi
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kocaelispor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genclerbirligi+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Kocaelispor-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Genclerbirligi · Home
1.27points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-6
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.47
Kocaelispor · Away
0.93points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-7
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Genclerbirligi | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | L 1–2 HL 2–3 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Konyaspor | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| Besiktas | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | L 0–5 AW 2–0 H |
| Kayserispor | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Rizespor | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 1–3 AL 1–3 H | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Trabzonspor | W 4–3 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 25 of 87 · 0.86 per game | 33 of 87 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Genclerbirligi wins0 draws1 Kocaelispor wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 28 Nov 2025Kocaelispor1–0Genclerbirligi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genclerbirligi | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.97 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.47 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 1.97 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 30% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Genclerbirligi | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.20 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genclerbirligi | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.03 | 4.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.28 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.31 | 8.14 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 66% 19/29 | 39% 11/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 14/29 | 29% 8/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 11/29 | 14% 4/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.27 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.03 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.57 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 17/30 | 63% 19/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 13/30 | 50% 15/30 | |
| Genclerbirligi | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 3.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 7.44 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.50 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mehmet Turkmen Türkiye · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.26league 4.45
Red cards0.11league 0.22
Cards 5+21%league 46%
Fouls24.6league 26.1
Penalties0.16league 0.28
Home wins53%league 41%
GenclerbirligiNo previous matches with this referee.
Kocaelispor3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L20 Feb 26A · Rizespor0–23
- W25 Oct 25H · Alanyaspor2–00
- L23 Aug 25A · Fenerbahce1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genclerbirligi30 games · scored 29 · conceded 44
4
4
0-15
5
4
16-30
4
13
31-45
5
7
46-60
5
8
61-75
6
8
76-90
Kocaelispor30 games · scored 25 · conceded 34
1
5
0-15
4
2
16-30
5
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
6
5
61-75
7
12
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 4 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
