Genclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Genclerbirligi
12th · 22 pts · 21 played
WDLWL
2–2Full time
Rizespor
14th · 20 pts · 21 played
LLDDL
Our take
Genclerbirligi were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Genclerbirligi. Genclerbirligi had 4.8 days of rest, Rizespor 5.9 and had to travel 660 km.
Away travel660 kmRest days4.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Genclerbirligi41%
Draw28%
Rizespor31%
Genclerbirligi39%
Draw27%
Rizespor34%
Genclerbirligi40%
Draw28%
Rizespor31%
Genclerbirligi34%
Draw28%
Rizespor38%
Genclerbirligi42%
Draw27%
Rizespor31%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ankara)
No weather data yet
RefereeÖmer Tolga Güldibi
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 6
Team strength
GenclerbirligiRizespor
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
13
AttackIn forecast
22
16
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenclerbirligiRizespor
1.24
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
76%
Scored inContext
71%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
10.62
ShotsContext
11.67
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.14
34%
On target shareContext
27%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.24
58%
Box shareContext
51%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.06
15.10
Shots allowedContext
14.05
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.16
4.50
BlocksContext
3.90
2.81
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.61
65%
Save rateContext
68%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
302
PassesContext
377
236
Accurate passesContext
308
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.48
FoulsContext
13.24
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.71
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.38
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.80
ShotsContext
11.50
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
36%
On target shareContext
28%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
62%
Box shareContext
45%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.75
15.30
Shots allowedContext
14.70
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.89
4.50
BlocksContext
3.60
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
63%
Save rateContext
64%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
301
PassesContext
355
234
Accurate passesContext
289
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.67
13.20
FoulsContext
12.20
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genclerbirligi
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rizespor
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel660 km1,940 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genclerbirligi |
Rizespor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Feb | 5.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 660 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 704 km | 1,940 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
24Ricardo Velho(G)
2T. da Silva
4Žan Žužek
6D. Goutas
88F. Üzüm
15A. Dele-Bashiru
35O. Ülgün
10M. Mimaroğlu
70F. Tongya
20A. Traoré
22S. Koïta
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
5C. Højer
27M. Sagnan
3S. Akaydin
54M. Pala
6G. Papanikolaou
14T. Antalyalı
7V. Mihăilă
20Q. Laçi
10I. Olawoyin
9A. Sowe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genclerbirligi
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rizespor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genclerbirligi+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Rizespor-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Genclerbirligi · Home
1.70points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-3
- Scored
- 1.70
- Conceded
- 1.40
Rizespor · Away
0.90points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-6-3
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Genclerbirligi | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce | L 1–3 AL 1–3 H | L 2–5 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | W 5–2 A |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | W 4–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Galatasaray | L 2–3 A | L 0–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Konyaspor | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Besiktas | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 22 of 60 · 1.10 per game | 17 of 60 · 0.85 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Genclerbirligi wins0 draws1 Rizespor wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 15 Sep 2025Rizespor1–0Genclerbirligi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genclerbirligi | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.24 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 2.71 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 52% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 57% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 29% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Genclerbirligi | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genclerbirligi | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.35 | 3.42 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.79 | |
| Match total | 9.35 | 8.21 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 13/20 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 10/20 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 9/20 | 21% 4/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.05 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 4.43 | 4.34 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 13/21 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 52% 11/21 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Genclerbirligi | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 8.40 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.10 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ömer Tolga Güldibi 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 4.41
Red cards0.00league 0.23
Cards 5+50%league 46%
Fouls27.5league 25.9
Penalties0.17league 0.27
Home wins50%league 37%
Genclerbirligi1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W20 Sep 25H · Eyüpspor1–03
Rizespor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W3 Nov 25H · Fatih Karagümrük1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genclerbirligi21 games · scored 26 · conceded 31
4
2
0-15
4
4
16-30
3
9
31-45
5
6
46-60
4
6
61-75
6
4
76-90
Rizespor21 games · scored 24 · conceded 33
4
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
3
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
9
61-75
6
9
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
8
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
