Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Genk
11th · 25 pts · 21 played
LDDLL
First leg2–2
1–1Full time
Cercle Brugge
15th · 20 pts · 21 played
LLWDW
Our take
Genk were slight favourites.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 26). Genk had 2.8 days of rest, Cercle Brugge 7.9 and had to travel 161 km.
Away travel161 kmRest days2.8 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Genk53%
Draw24%
Cercle Brugge23%
Genk51%
Draw25%
Cercle Brugge23%
Genk53%
Draw24%
Cercle Brugge23%
Genk45%
Draw26%
Cercle Brugge29%
Genk52%
Draw25%
Cercle Brugge23%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
RefereeNathan Verboomen
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 35
Team strength
GenkCercle Brugge
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
46
AttackIn forecast
24
50
DefenceIn forecast
28
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkCercle Brugge
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
86%
Scored inContext
76%
5%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
15.71
ShotsContext
12.43
5.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.15
36%
On target shareContext
32%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
58%
Box shareContext
75%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.08
OffsidesContext
2.95
11.95
Shots allowedContext
13.76
4.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.81
3.37
BlocksContext
3.40
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
66%
Save rateContext
69%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
557
PassesContext
366
486
Accurate passesContext
278
87%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.29
FoulsContext
10.86
13.14
Fouls sufferedContext
13.19
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.00
ShotsContext
12.10
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
41%
On target shareContext
31%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.89
58%
Box shareContext
78%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.17
OffsidesContext
3.80
12.90
Shots allowedContext
13.40
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.33
BlocksContext
3.60
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
67%
Save rateContext
70%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
515
PassesContext
382
440
Accurate passesContext
290
86%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.00
FoulsContext
10.50
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.40
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km547 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Cercle Brugge
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel161 km237 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
Cercle Brugge |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan | 7.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 161 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 547 km | 237 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
26T. Lawal(G)
19Y. Medina
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
77Z. El Ouahdi
8B. Heynen
38D. Heymans
14Y. Sor
20K. Karetsas
10J. Ito
23A. Bibout
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
1Warleson(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
3E. Utkus
66C. Ravych
15G. Magnée
28H. Van der Bruggen
18P. Gerkens
37E. Diop
6L. Agyekum
9S. Ngoura
17O. Adewumi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
1.20points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-4
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.60
Cercle Brugge · Away
1.30points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Genk | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 3–5 HL 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Charleroi | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| KVC Westerlo | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | W 2–0 AW 4–1 H |
| Antwerp | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| OH Leuven | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| KV Mechelen | L 0–1 H | L 2–3 HD 0–0 A |
| Gent | D 1–1 A | L 2–4 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Dender | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| St. Truiden | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Anderlecht | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Standard Liege | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Points | 24 of 60 · 1.20 per game | 19 of 60 · 0.95 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Genk wins2 draws0 Cercle Brugge wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 19 Oct 2025Cercle Brugge2–2Genk
- 20 Jan 2024Genk1–1Cercle Brugge
- 13 Aug 2023Cercle Brugge0–1Genk
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.71 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 43% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 81% | 62% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 5% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 24% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Genk | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.60 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 4.85 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.85 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 9.65 | 10.15 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 12/20 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 9/20 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 7/20 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.38 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.76 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 4.14 | 3.81 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 13/21 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 9/21 | 29% 6/21 | |
| Genk | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.78 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 10.78 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.10 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nathan Verboomen 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.69league 3.85
Red cards0.23league 0.18
Cards 5+51%league 40%
Fouls22.5league 23.0
Penalties0.11league 0.28
Home wins49%league 42%
Genk3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- L21 Sep 25H · Union St. Gilloise1–22
- L10 Aug 25A · Standard Liege1–22
- L23 Dec 23A · Anderlecht1–24
Cercle Brugge4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D4 Oct 25A · Antwerp1–11
- W25 Feb 24A · AS Eupen2–03
- L9 Dec 23H · Antwerp1–34
- W2 Sep 23H · KVC Westerlo2–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genk21 games · scored 28 · conceded 33
5
9
0-15
5
3
16-30
3
7
31-45
6
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
8
76-90
Cercle Brugge21 games · scored 27 · conceded 30
3
3
0-15
3
6
16-30
11
8
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
4
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
